Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Witch vs. The Pilot
It’s time to throw down the predictions for the upcoming box office weekend. We see the wide releases of Blair Witch, Bridget Jones’s Baby, and Snowden. Opening in moderate release this weekend is Hillsong-Let Hope Rise. So let’s get started.
It will be a bit of a battle for the top spot this weekend. I’m going to go with Blair Witch winning by a very short spell, if you catch my drift. It opens a full 16 years after the last effort in the franchise, but the big news out of Comic-Con for horror fans this year was the announcement that the film, formerly titled The Woods was in fact a direct sequel to the original Blair Witch Project (1999). Since then it has been steadily building buzz, and a smart marketing campaign has me thinking that even the mediocre reviews, 53% on Rotten Tomatoes, will bring out horror fans, who have had lots of reasons to go to the theaters this summer. With strong performances this late summer from Lights Out and Don’t Breathe, it almost makes the idea of Blair Witch opening to $20 million or more inevitable. Tracking has the film at $21 million, and you know what? I’m going to agree with that. It opens in 3,000 theaters and should average $7,000 per theater.
Next up we’ll discuss easily the biggest competition for the witch this weekend, Sully. It went over expectations last week and has some very strong word of mouth. With a big $35 million opening last weekend, I’m going to say it drops 45%, which would mean a second weekend total of $19.2 million. That should be a huge win for Warner Bros. and Clint Eastwood, who enjoyed his biggest opening weekend ever last weekend. Sure, American Sniper (2014) made almost $400 million in its release, but now Sully has a strong chance of topping $100 million domestically. That’s a pretty incredible result for a film opening in early September that isn’t targeted at kids.
Third place should belong to the newest Renee Zellweger film, the third in the Bridget Jones series. It’s been almost 12 years since the last film, but it should actually have the strongest performance of any of the series’ openings. The first film made $10.7 million in 2001 with the sequel making $8.6 million in 2004. Tracking has the third film opening at $13.5 million, and I see an opening that high as a possibility, I’m going to say it gets to $12 million. The reviews have been pretty strong, 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, and it does open in 2,920 theaters. It should average $4,110 per theater.
Fourth place could also be a battle. We have the holdover from last week, When the Bough Breaks vs new release Snowden. While tracking on Snowden is expecting a weak opening of $4.5 million, I feel the marketing campaign has been strong and that there is a sense of excitement around the film. I say $7.5 million for fourth place and When the Bough Breaks gets down to fifth place this weekend with a $5.5 million second weekend, a 61% drop. When comparing the film to the previous September thrillers that opened at this time the last two years, 61% is the average of the two films for the second weekend drop. Snowden opens in 2,400 theaters and my prediction would average $3,125 per theater.
For the moderate release this weekend, Hillsong-Let Hope Rise, I have seen a real lack of buzz. I just don’t feel it will do well. It opens in 815 theaters and tracking has it at $3.75 million this weekend, which sounds too high to me. I’ll say $2 million for the weekend, averaging about $2,454 per theater. Unless we do have some very big disappointments this weekend or bigger drops than expected, the film should be far away from the top five.
Well, last weekend was much better for me as far as predictions go, but it could have gone better for me. Sully over-performed, not just over my low-ball prediction or $19.5 million, but also over optimists predictions of $25-30 million with $35 million. Such a great result, and the word of mouth suggests it will be doing very well for the rest of the month. I also correctly predicted When the Bough Breaks in second place, but I overshot this one. I had it at $17.5 million and it reached $14.2 million. Don’t Breathe was indeed the third place victor with a bigger third weekend than expected, 47% instead of my 40%. I had it at $9.4 million but it ended up with $8.2 instead. Fourth place was also correctly predicted for Suicide Squad, and it reached $5.7 million, falling 42%. I had it at $5.4 million, so that one I’m proud of. Fifth place was the only incorrectly predicted spot in the top five for last weekend. I had Kubo and the Two Strings getting it at $4.5 million, but The Wild Life ended up taking fifth with a $3.3 million weekend, which is less than what I was predicting, $4 million, but I did have it below the top five, so count it against me. Kubo also earned $3.3 million, but fell to sixth. I also had a prediction for The Disappointments Room, which truly did live up to its title. I had it at $3 million, but it couldn’t even manage that. It opened in, get this, 17th place with only $1.4 million. So I did much better last weekend, and maybe that will string of success will continue this weekend.
