Weekend Box Office Predictions: Will the Accountant Keep the Books?
It’s time for another weekend box office prediction, and this weekend sees the release of three new wide-release films: The Accountant, Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Max Steel. That’s quite a variety for new releases, which usually means a good chance each films hits a good number for each demographic, but we’ll see. We’ll also have some holdovers fighting for spots in the top five, so I’ll do my best to try and predict what will land where. Let’s get started.
I’ll put the widest release in first place, The Accountant with Ben Affleck, Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, John Lithgow, Jon Bernthal, and Jeffrey Tambor. Quite a cast and some early buzz has put the film in good position to be the top film this weekend. Tracking has the film getting $17 million, but I’ll go a bit higher and say $18.5 million. Sure, there have been some pretty negative reviews, and it’s at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, but I still feel an excitement around this one. The film opens in 3,332 theaters this weekend, so it should average $5,552 per theater.
In second place it looks like Kevin Hart will dominate with What Now?, a stand-up show that has been advertised extremely well, and with good reviews from Rotten Tomatoes, early out it’s at 83%, I say it could go as high as $16 million this weekend, a bit higher than the $13.5 million tracking has the film opening at. Traditionally, these concert type films don’t do so well, but Kevin Hart is very popular, and back in the 80’s we had Richard Pryor: Live on the Sunset Strip (1982) and Eddie Murphy Raw (1987) both opened to the number one spot, so if Kevin really hits, it could be the first concert film to top the box office in nearly 30 years. Opening in 2,550 theaters, it should average $6,275 per theater.
I am not predicting a great second weekend for The Girl on the Train. It did just fine last weekend, not coming close to the opening Gone Girl (2014) had on the same weekend two years ago. I am predicting a 55% fall, which should be good enough for third place. That would put it at $11 million. While the new release Max Steel will be targeting the children’s market, I see Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children getting fourth place this weekend with a 45% and a third weekend total of $8.3 million. And for fifth place I’ll put Deepwater Horizon, dropping about 40% and totaling $6.9 for its third weekend.
Max Steel will most likely open outside the top five, and tracking has it at $4.5 million for the weekend, which sounds too high for me. For one, the advertising has been nearly invisible, and the original property it is based off of has a very small fan base that even remembers what it was. Most who see the ads think it’s a new property, but I’m putting it at $3.5 million instead for its opening weekend, and depending on how well The Magnificent 7, Storks, and Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life hold up, it could even be at the very bottom of the top ten. 2,034 theaters will host the film this weekend, so it’s looking at an average of $1,721 per theater.
So now for the best part: seeing just how right I was about last week. The Girl on the Train did take the top spot with my $25 million prediction being very close, it hit $24.5 million. Next up was another correct prediction: Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, which dropped 47% and brought in $15.1 million, off a bit from my $15.8 million prediction. While the high-budgeted film hasn’t exactly been doing gangbusters business here in the States, outside the States it’s been doing very well, so the film will be profitable, but mainly off of those foreign markets. Deepwater Horizon took third place falling 43% for an $11.5 million second weekend, down from my $12.1 million prediction. The rest of the top five was off the mark for me: The Magnificent 7 took fourth at $9 million, which I had in fifth place with $7.8 million, so it over-performed for its third weekend. Fifth place went to Storks, which I didn’t have in my top five. It earned $8.2 million for its third weekend, down only 38%. My fourth place prediction, The Birth of a Nation disappointed in sixth place with an opening weekend of $7 million, lower than my $8.5 million prediction. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life earned $6.8 million last weekend, higher than my $4 million prediction, so it did better than most thought. While we’ve been having lots of films open lately that around one weekend or so in the top three, and that’s due to a lot of competition, and especially next weekend when we have five new wide releases planned, it can feel like we’re over-saturated with movies, but the upside of that is that there will be more business. I just saw a report from Boxofficemojo.com where last month was the third biggest September ever domestically, and sure films like Sully and The Magnificent 7 doing good business, Storks being a big player, and a decent performance so far from Miss Peregrine and Deepwater Horizon make that possible, so good for movies, even with The Light Between Oceans, Morgan, Blair Witch, Bridget Jones’s Baby, Snowden, and When the Bough Breaks all failing to hit $30 million. Then more recent releases like Queen of Katwe and Masterminds not being terrific either, it can seem like September was a slow month. I’m sure October with a similar number of films opening and a few weekends that feel over-crowded will give us a similar feeling, but then again you never know.
