Weekend Box Office Predictions: Suicide Squad Aims High
This weekend sees the release of two major releases: Suicide Squad and Nine Lives. While it’s easy to predict which film will come out on top, let’s just say it will be more difficult to get the number it will do.
Squad has been one of the biggest question marks of the summer for Warner Bros. Would it be the big, unexpected hit that kicks August into the next gear or a modest opener that will rely on quality to become a success? Well, tracking on the film has gone from $95-140 million for the three day over the case of three weeks. I will be the first to say that if it does reach $140 I will be shocked. The reviews on the film have disappointed almost everyone, and expectations have dropped like a water-filled balloon from a 12th-floor balcony. So how much will it do? I am saying it will come close to $120 million on the high end with $95 million for the low end. Remember how The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) was supposed to open to $100 million plus but ended up with less than $95 million? If the reaction to the film from fans is similar, I see a similar result with around $95 million, but I see an outcome of most fans being okay with the movie and modestly recommending to friends for the opening weekend, similar to what happened this spring with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016). One other thing to mention: Suicide Squad does have the third widest-release of the year so far with the number of theaters it’s playing in with 4,255. So I say $120 million is the highest it will get with my final prediction being $113 million for a first place finish, and WB should be happy with a per-theater-average of $26,557.
In second place I see Jason Bourne. The film met expectations last weekend and for the most part the audiences enjoyed the film. Even with critical reception being mixed, I see the second weekend of Bourne also facing more problems with Squad taking from its core action audience. While the average Bourne second weekend drop is right at 50%, I see Squad taking out more. I’ll put $30 million for high end, which is almost a 50% drop, but I see something like a 62% drop, which would be $22 million.
Third place is where it becomes difficult. Last weekend Star Trek Beyond just barely beat out Bad Moms. Beyond will face the same problem that Bourne does with some pure action fans flocking to Suicide Squad leaving less money for Beyond. With that being said, Bad Moms will be left with nothing else to take it down, so I see a good hold for the second weekend. And especially with the word-of-mouth being strong with the core women audience, I see a drop-off of 45% or less happening, which would mean a total of $13 million for the weekend. Beyond will likely see around a 55% drop for its third weekend, with a total of $11.5 million, so it will be a close battle, but I see Moms winning out.
Fifth place looks like it belongs to The Secret Life of Pets, which has surpassed all expectations thus far. Each weekend’s drop off has been smaller than the previous thus far, with a 50% drop off the second weekend, a 40% drop off for the third weekend, and only a 36% drop off for the fourth weekend. I do see that streak ending this weekend with the release of Nine Lives, but that should only steal a bit of the Pets‘ kids audience. Nine Lives has only been tracking for around a $9 million opening, but I see that being difficult with too many repeat viewers on Pets, which I predict will drop about 48% for a fifth weekend of just under $10 million for 5th place while Nine Lives begs for mercy with an opening of around $7.5 million for 6th. It opens in only 2,264 theaters, and with a per-theater-average of $3,313.
Normally the first week or so of August is the high point, and even with the top four films above ten million dollars, I can see a lot of people reacting to how the fans accept or reject the new releases. If they like Suicide Squad then good, $120 million is almost a guarantee. If they don’t, most of the general fans have lots of other distractions: they’ll see other films, they’ll go out for the weekend far from a theater, lots of families are doing that before fall, or they’ll watch the Olympics on TV. So there you have it, my first box office prediction. This is probably close to what I’ll normally do for these weekly blogs, plus starting next week I can check how close or far away I was. This could be a lot of fun.
