Weekend Box Office Predictions: Running Rings around the Competition?
We’ve arrived at Super Bowl weekend, where commonly we see good counter-programming to the NFL event of the year. Well, the two wide releases this weekend are Rings and The Space Between Us, and while I think the former will win the weekend, it’s not going to be a stampede at the box office. Here’s the forecast.
Rings has had a hell of a time getting to the theaters. After several push-backs, one of them only weeks from release last Halloween, it hits theaters this weekend. There aren’t any recognizable actors in the film with the exception of Vincent D’Onofrio, but he’s not exactly a box office draw. Sure, the franchise has had some strong performances in the past at the box office, but those were over a decade ago. With no critical reviews, which is never a good sign, I am predicting a weekend total of $16.5 million. That’s a bit above the tracked number, $14 million. It will play in 3,000 theaters, which would mean $5,500 would be the per theater average.
In second place we’ll go with Rings‘ toughest competition, Split. The film has been doing phenomenal business thus far, and while a good portion of its audience has seen the film by now and with some of that same audience glued to the set this weekend, I am predicting a 50% drop, which would mean $12.8 million in its third weekend. If that holds true, that would mean the film will pass $95 million domestically by the end of the weekend. That’s a pretty astounding result for a little $9 million movie, and if Rings tanks, it will retake that number one slot as well.
In third place I’m going with Hidden Figures. It only saw a 10% drop last weekend, and with Black History Month underway and the Screen Actors Guild Award win for Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture on Sunday, I think a 25% drop is in store, or $10.5 million. In fourth place, another holdover, A Dog’s Purpose. The film did okay with $18.2 million last weekend, but I’m anticipating a 55% drop and a second weekend of $8.2 million. And in fifth place I’ll put La La Land, where I anticipate a 35% drop and a weekend total of $7.9 million. So if A Dog’s Purpose really falls off, it could even get to fourth place.
The other new release this weekend, The Space Between Us also has a horror story as far as previous release schedules. It was supposed to come out last December, but was bumped back just weeks prior to release. On top of that, I saw the trailer for it just a few weeks ago, and it still said “This December” in the preview, and everybody laughed. Well, the film does have something of an ensemble cast including Asa Butterfield, Carla Gugino, Britt Robertson, and Gary Oldman, but with no critical reviews and a tracking number suggesting at best a $4.2 million opening weekend, I’m going a bit lower with $3.5 million. It should still be in the top ten, but it’s not exactly what the studio wanted. In 2,812 theaters, it would average $1,245 per theater.
Now it’s time to take a look at the weekend scorecard from last week. Split was my predicted winner, and it did win the weekend with $25.6 million, a bit above my $22.4 million prediction. Second place went to A Dog’s Purpose, which I had coming in third with $13 million. It actually earned $18.2 million. In third place was Hidden Figures earning $14 million, above my fourth place $11 million prediction. My second place prediction, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, really didn’t score well and earned a fourth place $13.6 million, well below my $20 million prediction. And in fifth place was La La Land earning $12.2 million. I had xXx: The Return of Xander Cage in fifth with $9 million. Sheesh. What a terrible result for me. Outside the top five I did have a prediction, though, that was closer. Gold, which hit number 10 in the box office last weekend, earning $3.4 million, and I had it earning $4 million, so that wasn’t so bad, but still, only one out of five? Anyways, this weekend is almost always one where poor performances come out for poor movies. We’ll just have to wait and see if this is the case again for this year.
