Weekend Box Office Predictions: Rogue Will Be Number One
It’s here, fans and friends, boys and girls, old farts and young squirts. It is time for Star Wars: Rogue One to be released to the public, and as a huge fan of the franchise since, well, probably I was able to comprehend a movie, I’m very excited, and so is the majority of the moviegoing world. Anyways, let’s not gush and be objectionable now. We have to make predictions. How well will it do? What could make it over or under perform? And will any other movies make a splash this weekend? Well, aside from Collateral Beauty opening wide and Manchester by the Sea expanding into a wide demographic, we will see lots of repeat business fill out the rest of the box office. Now let’s get to the countdown–I mean count up. We always start what will be number one.
Well, Star Wars: Rogue One has a lot going for it. Number one, the brand name. It’s the first movie with the name Star Wars to open since Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015), which, as you may recall, became the all time biggest film in domestic history and had a nearly $250 million opening weekend this time last year. Now it’s Rogue One‘s turn, and just about anything with the name Star Wars attached to it will post a huge number. Then you look at the cast involved: Felicity Jones, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Mads Mikkelsen, Donnie Yen, Riz Ahmed, and Forest Whitaker. With a couple of exceptions, none of them are huge box office draws, but still it’s a talented and exciting cast to put together, and that brings in some. Then the reviews are mostly positive: 84% on Rotten Tomatoes. Tracking has the film at about $155 million, and a couple months ago I thought it would rival Captain America: Civil War (2016) for highest opening for a film domestically, but now I’m thinking it’ll land at about $163 million. That makes it the third highest opening weekend this year, behind Civil War and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016). It could go even higher, or maybe a bit closer to tracking, but if word of mouth is as good as it was with Force Awakens, there is a possibility of $170 million or higher. It is also the widest release this weekend at 4,157 theaters, and should average $39,211 per theater.
If those who have seen Rogue One can be trusted, the film may end up being too dark for family audiences, so that might impact on the opening weekend and it might make Moana‘s fourth weekend drop a bit lower. It was only down 34% last weekend, and I’m expecting a chunk to be taken out this weekend because of that little Star Wars movie. I say it drops 45% and lands at $10.1 million, which should be enough for second place.
Then comes the other new wide release, Collateral Beauty, which could over-perform and get second place, but despite the excellent cast of Will Smith, Helen Mirren, Keira Knightley, Edward Norton, Kate Winslet, Naomi Harris, and Michael Pena, I don’t feel a ton of excitement around the film. Also critics are taking a liking to hating it, and it does only have 18% on Rotten Tomatoes. Then again, it is a good counter-programming piece to Rogue One. If you’d rather see an uplifting family drama, I guess, rather than a gritty war movie set in outer space, then maybe it’s for you. I say it does come close to second with $9.5 million, but tracking does have it at $13 million, so I might just be wrong about this one. It does have 2,900 theaters playing it this weekend, so it would average $3,276 per theater.
That does it for the new titles, and fourth and fifth place will be holdovers Office Christmas Party and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. In particular, Fantastic Beasts will probably see its biggest drop to date due to direct competition with Rogue One, and just the fact that everybody who wants to see it already has, except for whatever reason me. So I expect Office Christmas Party to edge it out for fourth place with a 45% drop and a second weekend of $9.2 million. Then a 60% drop for Fantastic Beasts, which would put it at $4.1 million. For a movie that’s already been out a month, it’s about time to see it earn less than $10 million a weekend.
Now for the wide expansion of Manchester by the Sea. Well, if Fantastic Beasts does fall as far as I have it, there’s a chance Manchester usurps it for the fifth spot. With phenomenal critic reviews, already a strong perform in limited release, and tons of awards buzz, fueled even further by strong performances at both the Golden Globe nominations and SAG nominations earlier this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if it does earn $5 million or more this weekend. But, it’s a wide release by a relatively thin margin: 1,203 theaters showing it. I’ll put it just under Fantastic Beasts at $4 million even this weekend, but still I could be wrong and it does break into the top five. If so, job well done for the film. And one more to mention is the limited release of Fences this weekend. It only plays in four theaters, so don’t expect anything in the top five, but with the star-power of Denzel Washington and Viola Davis in an Oscar buzz film, it looks to be rivaling Rogue One for highest per-theater average this weekend. I expect that per-theater average to be above $50 thousand, or a weekend gross of $200 thousand or better.
All right, now let’s look back at last weekend and see what the report card says. Well, number one was a wrong prediction from me: I had Office Christmas Party taking the crown, but it went to Moana, falling 34% for $18.5 million in its third weekend. Office had to settle for a $16.8 million debut. I had it at $19.5 million and Moana at $15.5 million, so I almost had the right numbers with the opposite film. Third place went to Fantastic Beasts, and it was correct. I had $9 million, and it earned $10.4 million, so not terrible. Fourth place was also correct for…oops, not even close. Nope, fourth place was Arrival, only down 23% from its previous week and earning $5.5 million. Damn! Fifth place was also incorrect and went to Doctor Strange, earning $4.5 million. I had Arrival at $4.3 million for fifth and Miss Sloane in fourth, which really missed. It ended up in 11th place with $1.8 million instead of my predicted $5 million. That’s embarrassing. And the hits just keep coming. I had Nocturnal Animals in its wide expansion hitting $2.5 million, and it did $3.1 million, even better than expected. True, it was outside the top five, but still more negative points for me. And a happy note for Best Picture hopeful La La Land, it’s $800 thousand opening weekend in five theaters was the highest per-theater average of the year so far with $176,221 per theater. Unfortunately it won’t go even wider until probably Christmas, but I am dying to see this one. So a lot of excitement this weekend, and the hits won’t stop until Christmas next Sunday, with lots of new wide releases looming and tons and tons of limited release and wide expansions on the horizon, we’ll have tons to talk about next weekend.
