Weekend Box Office Predictions: Patriot’s Delight
We’ve got a full plate this weekend: 2 movies previously in limited release expanding into wide release: Patriot’s Day and Live by Night, and 3 new wide releases: Monster Trucks, The Bye Bye Man, and Sleepless. We also have Silence expanding into semi-moderate release, so we’ll handle that one as well, and we have tons of leftovers from the last couple of weeks. So let’s get to it.
Out front I have Peter Berg’s latest, Patriot’s Day. While it hasn’t quite done American Sniper (2014) numbers in its limited release leading up to wide distribution, it’s still done very well and looks to win the weekend. With a cast like Mark Wahlberg, Kevin Bacon, John Goodman, Michelle Monaghan, and J.K. Simmons lighting up the marquee, and the the goodwill from Deepwater Horizon (2016) this last fall, Peter Berg has really risen up again as a director, so there’s a lot of attention on this one. Critics have also given this one pretty good reviews, and it’s at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. Tracking has the film hitting $23.5 million this weekend, and I’ll put it a bit higher at $28 million. This will be for the three day weekend, not including Martin Luther King Day. It will play in 2,900 theaters, and should average $9,655 per theater.
Second place looks like it will go to last week’s big winner, Hidden Figures. I have it falling only 35% from last weekend, totaling $14.8 million in its second week of wide release. The word of mouth has been extremely strong, and it could realistically outpace some of the other releases to become the biggest hit of January. In third place I have newcomer Sleepless. What looks to be Taken (2009) with Jamie Foxx, these type of movies can do big business in January, but the buzz in nowhere near as strong as, say, Taken 3 (2015), which hit $39.2 million in this same weekend. Instead I have Sleepless, which also stars Michelle Monaghan, earning $13.5 million for the three day. Tracking has it a bit lower at $11.5 million, so there’s a chance it doesn’t quite hit the mark I set. It plays in 1,803 theaters and should average $7,488 per theater.
Fourth place is where it becomes tricky. I have Star Wars: Rogue One in this place, falling another 50% from last week and making $11 million. By the end of the holiday weekend for sure, it will top Finding Dory (2016) to become the highest grossing domestic film of 2016, and a total north of $500 million is very possible. So to finish out the top five I have Monster Trucks. While the film doesn’t really have any bankable stars in major roles, though Danny Glover, Amy Ryan, and Rob Lowe appear in the film, the advertising has been the strongest of the new releases and of the brand new releases, it has the highest theater count. This spot could easily go to Sing, and both films are aiming for the same child demographic, and while Sing‘s critical reviews are better, that film has already been out for a few weeks, so I’ll give the advantage to the new release. Tracking has it coming in at $12 million, but I have it just hitting $10 million. In 2,800 theaters that would mean an average of $3,571 per theater.
Now for the other two, we’re looking at about $9.5 million or so for Live by Night, and that also could reach number five, but with poor critical reviews, 37% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a real lack of excitement around the film, despite Ben Affleck’s directorial achievements and the stellar cast, including Affleck, Elle Fanning, Zoe Saldana, Chris Cooper, Sienna Miller, and Brendan Gleeson. Tracking has it considerably higher at $14.5 million, but I just don’t feel that level of excitement. Playing in 2,700 theaters it should average $3,519 per theater. And for The Bye Bye Man, horror movies can really do damage in these early months of the year, but with the movie originally set for release back for two or three different dates in 2016, it just looks like a catastrophe waiting to happen, and while I do think it will do better this weekend than it would have last year, I still only have it hitting $7.5 million, with tracking pretty close at $9 million. With all these other films this weekend plus all the holdovers, there’s a chance it might score below the top ten. In 2,300 theaters it should average $3,261 per theater.
Silence expands into 750 theaters this weekend, but with all this competition and such a low number, I think a steady $3 million outside the top five and potentially outside the top ten is expected. Depending on what Paramount’s distribution plan is, it could do better in the coming weeks if the theater count grows.
Finally, let’s recount what happened at least weekend’s box office. For the first weekend of 2017, I am off to a poor start. So my number one prediction, Sing, ended up coming in third place. My first place number was $27.8 million and it only managed $20.7 million. Though the true number one film, Hidden Figures, hit $22.8 million. I had it clear down in fourth place $16.5 million. Second place went to Star Wars: Rogue One, which I had in $24.8 million. So the place was right, but my prediction was off; it earned $22 million. My third place prediction, Underworld: Blood Wars ended up in fourth place with $13.6 million. My third place number was $18.5 million. Yuck. Then one more correct one, La La Land, which got $10.1 million in fifth place, though my $11.9 million prediction was a bit off the mark. So yes, I could have done a lot better last weekend, and this weekend is a tricky one, and a few things might be really wrong. We’ll just have to see what folks go out to see what this weekend.
