Weekend Box Office Predictions: No Gold at the End of This Rainbow
Believe it or not, here we are at the final weekend of January. And for a month that typically produces crappy content, we have a few films that have really made a run for it at the box office, turning this into the most successful January since 2015 where American Sniper (2014) set the theaters on fire with huge returns. Well, we have 3 new releases this weekend, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, A Dog’s Purpose, and Gold. While all three have potential to do well this weekend, I’m only thinking that the sixth and supposedly final chapter of the Resident Evil franchise will do solid business.
So the big question is, will that movie, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, be big enough to topple Split? Well, the word of mouth has been strong enough with the latter that I can’t say it will. I have it falling 45% from its fantastic $40 million weekend and hitting $22 million on its follow-up weekend. Now for Resident Evil, with long-time star Milla Jovovich returning to the franchise and the average opening of the franchise being $22.4 million, this one could still end up being one of the weaker openings for the franchise. And sure, that Final Chapter will add some more butts to the seats, and with tracking only coming in at $18 million and 3,000 theater screening it and no critical reviews, I’m going with an even $20 million. Depending on how well Split holds on in its second weekend, it could win the weekend. The 3,000 theater count would mean an average of $6,667 per theater.
For the number three slot, I’m going with newcomer A Dog’s Purpose, and with stars like Dennis Quaid, Britt Robertson, and Josh Gad starring, and an effective marketing campaign, there is a huge question mark here. Last week a video was released potentially showing the filmmakers being cruel to an animal used in the film, sparking controversy and some boycotting the film. I think this did hurt, but the question is how much? What could have potentially opened to $25 million or more I think is now looking at half of that, $13 million is my official prediction. Even tracking has backed way down to $14 million, and with critical reviews being unkind, 33% on Rotten Tomatoes, that factors in as well. Playing in 3,025 theaters, it should average $4,298 per theater.
In fourth and fifth place we’re looking at two holdovers, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage and Hidden Figures. With the latter receiving a Best Picture nomination on Tuesday, I think the drop off will only be 30% and it will get $11 million in its fourth weekend of wide release, totaling about $95 million by the end of the weekend. And for Xander Cage, I think a 55% drop is in store, which would mean $9 million for its second weekend. The other newcomer, Gold starring Matthew McConaughey, Bryce Dallas Howard, Edgar Ramirez, Corey Stoll, Toby Kebbell, Bruce Greenwood, Stacy Keach, and Craig T. Nelson, its the largest cast of the newcomers, but with a release date that shows its not the Oscar-contender the studio thought it would be, and only 2,200 theaters showing it this weekend, we’re only looking at an opening weekend around $4 million. Tracking isn’t far off with $5 million, so there is potential for it to be outside the top ten depending on how some of the nominees for Best Picture rise in re-distribution, including Arrival, Moonlight, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. Theater average for Gold would be $1,818 per theater.
And finally we’ll take a look at how I did last weekend with box office predictions. Well, I think I speak for everyone when I say we were waylaid by the opening Split had: $40 million! That more than doubles my $19 million prediction, so it was correct for the number one spot. Number two was xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, which earned $20.1 million, a bit more than my $16 million prediction. Next up was Hidden Figures, which fell only 24% and hit $15.7 million, and my prediction, get this, was a 25% drop and $15.6 million, so it couldn’t get much closer. The last two spots, though, were flip-flopped. My fourth place prediction, La La Land, came in fifth place at got $8.4 million instead of my predicted 15% drop and $12.3 million. And my fifth place prediction, Sing, fell 36% and hit $9 million, which was actually lower than my $9.2 million prediction. I also had prediction for The Founder and The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. The Founder found $3.4 million in 11th place, which was almost spot-on with my $3.5 million prediction. However, Gavin Stone earned more than I thought it would: $1.2 million in 19th place. I only had it getting $800 thousand. Well, despite not catching that overperformance by Split, I’m pretty proud of how I did. Hopefully this will continue into this coming weekend.
