Weekend Box Office Predictions: A Merry Christmas for Disney
The Walt Disney company has had a banner year. They’ve cleared $7 billion worldwide with their theatrical releases, and as we approach the end of the fourth quarter, there’s a chance that grows to close to $8 billion with Star Wars: Rogue One continuing strong business and Moana also continuing to bring in some dough. Now we enter the second-to-last weekend of the year, and we have a lot on our plates: we have four new wide releases, one film expanding into wide release, and six films entering limited release. So eleven films to discuss there, plus Rogue One. So let’s get started.
Once again it will be Rogue One on top, but the big question will be not how much it earns in its second weekend as much as how much will it drop. It did earn a very healthy $155 million last weekend, so unless we see a 75% or higher drop, which I’m not foreseeing, it should remain number one pretty easily. I say it drops 60% and hits $62 million. Even though Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) hit over $100 million in its second weekend, with the way the box office has been going this year a $62 million second weekend is still the third best this year, behind Captain America: Civil War (2016) and Finding Dory (2016), who will also probably beat Rogue One for domestic totals.
In second place will be newcomer Sing. Not only does it open in the most theaters of any new release or expansion, 4,022, but it also has perhaps the most high-profile cast: Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Seth MacFarlane, Scarlett Johansson, Tori Kelly, John C. Riley, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Nick Offerman, Jennifer Hudson, and Leslie Jones. Tracking has the film hitting $34 million, which sounds a bit low to me. I’m gonna put it at $45 million, which might be overdoing it a bit, but everywhere I look I see ads, excitement, and critics are also favoring it the most among the new wide releases at 71% per Rotten Tomatoes. My prediction would mean $11,188 per theater. Keep in mind, this is the three day weekend, not including the Wednesday or Thursday numbers like some will.
Third place looks like it will be Passengers. The film will be in 3,478 theaters, which is a good number, and also has big stars Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence in the starring roles with Michael Sheen, Laurence Fishburne, and Andy Garcia also in the film. It does, however, have some pretty negative reviews combating it: 30% on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, tracking has it hitting $30 million, but I say it’ll come closer to $25 million. It hasn’t had a great start off of Wednesday estimates, and in fact Assassin’s Creed beat it. However, I have my reasons for putting Assassin’s Creed below Passengers. For the latter, I have the per theater average at $7,188.
Now for the next video game movie, Assassin’s Creed. There are several things preventing this one from breaking out big. Sure, Michael Fassbender, Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Irons, Charlotte Rampling, and Brendan Gleeson are featured in the cast, but it’s only in 2,902 theaters, and critics have been having a field day with this one: 18% on Rotten Tomatoes. So I’ll have to put it at $17 million for the three day, a bit below the $20 million tracking prediction. My estimates have it earning $5,858 per theater.
The battle for fifth place will come down like this: Why Him? vs. La La Land vs. Fences. Why Him? has the big stars and biggest theater count of the three, La La Land has been killing it: it was in 7th place last weekend in only 200 theaters! And then Fences also has a lot of stars, but it’s not in as many theaters as Why Him? We should also point out Moana will have a piece of the pie, but I’m not seeing it falling less than 10% to stay in the top five this weekend, especially since the key target audience will be flocking to Sing. So I’ll go with Why Him?, earning $12.5 million for the three day. Tracking has it a bit lower at $9 million, which would mean that if it falls below that, either Fences or La La Land could easily take over. I would give the edge to La La Land, but I see more ads and a bit more excitement for Why Him?, and with 2,800 theaters showing it, the average is $4,464 per theater. So Fences should still do pretty well in its expansion, though it doesn’t hit that wide number until Sunday, Christmas Day, so it would have to have an amazing Christmas Day to place in the top five. More likely is a $5.5 million three day weekend, again most of that coming from Sunday’s individual day.
Now for those limited releases: Hidden Figures, Patriot’s Day, Silence, Live by Night, and A Monster Calls are the ones opening, and far and away the highest theater count is Hidden Figures with 25, with the others opening in 4 theaters each, with the exception of Patriot’s Day with 7 theaters, and that one opened on Wednesday, with the others hitting theaters either this Friday or on Sunday, so predicting estimates is pretty tough. Also in an undisclosed number of theaters is 20th Century Women, so we’ll look at that one as well. All of these films have plans to expand, either in early or late January, so we’ll hear more from them later.
Now for my favorite part, the report card of last week’s box office numbers. First place did indeed go to Star Wars: Rogue One, which earned $155 million, which was not too far off from my $163 million prediction. Second place went to Moana which fell 31% and hit $12.7 million, above my $10.1 million prediction. Next up was Office Christmas Party, which I had in fourth place with $9.2 million, but it earned $8.5 million, below my estimate and of course incorrectly picked. My third place prediction, Collateral Beauty, came in fourth, well below my $9.5 million prediction at $7.1 million. That’s pretty bad for a Will Smith opener. And in fifth place was Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, earning $5 million, a bit above my $4.1 million prediction. I also had a prediction for Manchester by the Sea, $4 million, and it earned $4.2 million, so that one was pretty close. Overall that wasn’t too bad, but we’ll see what this huge crop of newcomers brings this weekend. So until next time, a very Merry Christmas.
