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Weekend Box Office Predictions: Magnificent Hopes

The Magnificent Seven Trailer

Well it’s Thursday once again so it’s time to take a guess at what’s coming up this weekend at the box office.  We see the release of what could be the two highest grossing films of the month: The Magnificent 7 and Storks.  Since both films are aiming for two different demographics, they should both boast some pretty high numbers.  In fact, there is a possibility that the record for biggest opening for the month of September.  The current record holder is Hotel Transylvania 2 (2015) with $48.4 million.

Hoping to ride into the sunset with the top spot is Antoine Fuqua’s remake of The Magnifent 7, and I think it will top the charts this weekend.  With big stars Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt being the two top stars advertised, there is a large amount of excitement around the film.  Also featured in the cast is Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Haley Bennett, and Peter Sarsgaard.  While critics have been pretty mixed on the film, it currently scores 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, tracking on the film has it around $49 million.  Part of the reason I think an opening this high is possible is the marketing and star-power.  I mean, how much did we say Jurassic World (2015) would open?  Like, $110 million tops?  Oops, it did almost $210 million.  So when Pratt’s involved, aiming high isn’t questionable.  I say it opens at $45 million, just a bit shy of the record, but I won’t be too surprised if it manages it.  The film opens in 3,665 theaters and should average $12,278 per theater.

Storks Trailer

Then comes Storks, the new animated film.  Kids have been pretty limited recently with selection when it comes to movies in the theater, so this could actually reach in to the same territory that Magnificent 7 is hoping for.  With reconizable voices lent by Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Ty Burrell, Kelsey Grammer and Key and Peele, just to name a few, adults might have some fun with the film, too.  The film has been tracking for around $33 million this weekend, but I think the marketing has keyed up enough buzz to have it open around $38 million.  I might be a little high on it, and critics are also mixed on this one, 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, but it does open in 3,800 theaters.  So my prediction would mean an even $10,000 per theater.

sully movie review

Third place will belong to Sully, which had a magnificent hold last weekend, only falling 38%.  The main demographic that Sully aims for is not included in the two new releases, so a drop of 40% or so is likely.  I say an even 40% drop and a third weekend total of $12.9 million.  Fourth place looks like it’ll be Bridget Jones’s Baby.  While the film didn’t hit the mark like we thought it would last weekend, once again the main demographic isn’t straying to see the other releases.  I’ll put it at a 35% drop and a second weekend of $5.5 million.

Snowden movie review

Fifth place will be a toss-up: Snowden or Blair Witch?  Of course a big story from early this week was the huge disappointment of Blair Witch at last weekend’s box office, and the other big story was the over-performance of Snowden and Sully‘s second weekend.  I’m going to go with Snowden as the fifth place victor with a 50% drop.  That would mean a second weekend of $4 million.  Opening in limited release but expanding next week is The Queen of Katwe with Lupita Nyong’o and David Oyelowo.  It won’t be a gigantic monster in its run this weekend but it is worth mentioning.

Now for my favorite part, looking back and how well or poorly I did the previous weekend.  Well, I had a poor start with Blair Witch opening to $21 million, instead Sully saw an incredible 38% drop for a $21.6 million second weekend, retaining the top spot.  Blair Witch had to settle for a second place finish of $9.5 million.  I wasn’t alone in predicting a big opening for Blair Witch, though, so it wasn’t like I was crazy…I think.  Anyways, the third place spot was correctly predicted for Bridget Jones’s Baby, just a bit lower than my prediction.  I had it opening to $12 million.  It’s actual total was $8.5 million.  Another correct one was Snowden in fourth place.  I had it topping out at $7.5 million, but it went a little higher at $8 million, so that wasn’t too bad.  Unfortunately I couldn’t quite get 3/5 right, and I had When the Bough Breaks getting the fifth spot.  It actually went to Don’t Breathe, earning $5.6 million, though When the Bough Breaks wasn’t far behind with $5.4 million, so give me some credit.  I had it getting $5.5 million.  So overall last weekend wasn’t awful, but it could have gone better for me.  We’ll see what next weekend brings.

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PlagmanRules
I am a gigantic movie nerd who spends his free time memorizing Oscar winners and nominees and seeing as many good movies as I can. I have always wanted to write about films, review films, and speculate on films, and hope that this site helps me get a couple of people who can agree or disagree with me.
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