Weekend Box Office Predictions: Madea, Jack Reacher, and the Joneses, Too!
Wow, what an overloaded array of new releases we have this week! Four wide-releases: Jack Reacher: Never go Back, Boo! A Madea Halloween, Keeping up with the Joneses, and Oujia: Origin of Evil. So yes, we have a couple of different options to consider this weekend, not only for the top spot, but also for the rest of the top five. On top of several films gunning for the same audience, we also just have the sheer number of new releases that will each shave off a few bucks from another. Anyways, let’s get started.
I guess you can never go wrong with Tom Cruise coming in at number one, but then again Jack Reacher never goes back. The Tom Cruise action vehicle enters the weekend in the most theaters, a count of 3,780. So while a lot of action fans who aren’t digging the looks of The Accountant or Deepwater Horizon will go see this one, I’m not predicting an excellent weekend. The first film opened to $15.2 million in an equally crowded weekend, though that was during the holidays. Never go Back should top that, and I’m going to go with $21 million for the three day. The film’s advertising has been pretty good, but some fairly negative reviews, like 38% on Rotten Tomatoes, might keep those on the fence at home, though tracking has it opening closer to $27 million, so I’m lowballing this one. It should average $5,556 dollars per theater.
Second place might be closer than you think: we have two new releases, Boo! A Madea Halloween and Ouija: Origin of Evil and holdover The Accountant. I might shock a few of you out there and say Ouija: Origin of Evil takes this one. Sure, Blair Witch was DOA a month ago, and I of course foolishly put it at number one that weekend, but think about it: since then, there have been no thrillers, no horror movies, nothing. The third entry in the Ring series was set to premiere next weekend, but was pushed back for the nineteenth time, so now it’s the only horror film opening this Halloween season. Plus films like Lights Out and Don’t Breathe exceeded even the wildest expectations in the late summer, and horror fans like me who enjoyed those movies and were let down by Blair Witch, well, hell, I didn’t see it, are likely going to give Ouija: Origin of Evil a try. Plus it currently sits at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, so it has the critics’ backing, just like Lights Out and Don’t Breathe. I say it gets to $18 million this weekend, which is pretty close to the $18.9 million the first film earned opening weekend. It does have 3,168 theaters showing it, but tracking hasn’t been fantastic: $9.5 million is expected. So I’m going against the grain here, and might live to regret it, but I’ll take the chance. It should average $5,682 per theater.
Third place would then have to be Boo! A Madea Halloween. Tyler Perry always draws a crowd with Madea, but the last film before, A Madea Christmas (2013) earned only $16 million its opening weekend, below the average for the Madea franchise, so if this one doesn’t do exceedingly well, Madea might be coming to an end. I say the film earns $16.5 million, just a bit more than the last one. Tracking does have the film a bit higher at $18.5 million, so I’m lowballing this one too. It does play in 2,260 theaters, and should average $7,301 per theater.
For fourth place I’m putting The Accountant, which over-performed last weekend and is looking at a 45% drop off, at least in my book. That would make it a $13.6 million second weekend. Fifth place will be a close battle between The Girl on the Train, Kevin Hart: What Now, and Keeping up with the Joneses, and I’m in the hot spot now. I hate to say it, but Galifianakis will have another opening out of the top five. I’m going with The Girl on the Train holding on with a 50% drop and a third weekend of $6.1 million.
I have Keeping up with the Joneses fetching $5.5 million this weekend. While sure, there are die-hard fans out there of Galifianakis out there, but the rest of the stars, like Gal Gadot, Jon Hamm, and Isla Fisher are not huge box office draws, and poor reviews won’t help any. Tracking has it higher at $7 million, so getting into the top five is still possible. It does play in 3,022 theaters, so it should average $1,820 per theater. Then in moderate release is I’m not Ashamed, which like the Joneses will open outside the top five. Tracking has this one getting $4 million, and I don’t see that. I’m saying $2 million in 504 theaters, averaging $3,968 per theater.
Man, after all that, I’ll keep my notes on what happened last weekend fairly quick, or at least I’ll try. So The Accountant did come in at number one, beating my expectations at $24.7, almost duplicating what The Girl on the Train did the weekend before. I only had it at $18.5 million. Next up was The Girl on the Train with a $12.2 million second weekend, higher than my third place $11 million prediction. Then came Kevin Hart: What Now, earning a lot less than my $16 million prediction. It came in third with $11.7 million. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took the fourth slot with $8.9 million, $600 thousand more than my $8.3 million prediction, and fifth place was correctly predicted for Deepwater Horizon, though I had it at $6.9 million and it earned $6.4 million, so that was off $500 thousand. I’ll take that. Again, I might be dead wrong with a couple of my predictions this week, but if I’m right, I will bask in all the glory of bragging rights. Anyways, it’s all just for fun, so I’ll shut up now.
