Weekend Box Office Predictions: Logan Begins the Pre-Summer Blockbuster Season
The next six weeks all feature huge projects and IP’s being released: we have Logan this week, Kong: Skull Island next week, Beauty & the Beast the week after that, Power Rangers after that, Ghost in the Shell closes out March, then The Fate of the Furious beings April. Wow! With so many huge properties, March is looking to perhaps be a record-breaking month at the box office domestically. Before we get to that, though we have the aforementioned Logan, The Shack, and Before I Fall. I think the big winner this weekend will be an obvious one, so let’s get to the predictions.
So with Hugh Jackman’s final turn as the popular Wolverine character in Logan opening this weekend, it starts what I’m now calling the pre-summer blockbuster season. Like remember last year when we had would-be summer blockbusters like Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) and The Jungle Book (2016) open in late March and April? Well, it looks like that’s the way things are going for the future with all the films listed in the opening and more coming out in the next two months. Anyways, Logan has a ton going for it. We have the obvious factor of it being the final film, supposedly, to feature Jackman as the title character and Patrick Stewart as Professor X, plus the early reviews being off-the-charts with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes starting back on February 17th, building the buzz even further. Then there’s all the great marketing Fox has put together. They’ve done a wonderful job. Plus the excitement of it being an R-rated look at the Wolverine character, which arguably should have come sooner than this, and all the goodwill from the last R-rated Marvel title, Deadpool (2016). While I’m not anticipating an opening weekend on that level, Logan is still heading for an $82.5 million opening weekend. There’s even a chance it hits $90 million or more. Tracking has it just a bit lower than my prediction, $81 million, but still this will be a great result for the film. It opens in 3,900 theaters and would average $21,154 per theater if my prediction holds.
Last week’s big hit, Get Out, should hit a great second weekend. While lots of horror fans have already seen it, the almost universally great word-of-mouth has those who haven’t seen it yet, like me, really anticipating it. I have it falling 35% and hitting $21.6 million. Another holdover should complete the top three, The LEGO Batman Movie. The key target audience for Logan doesn’t include the horror fans seeing Get Out or the adult audiences experiencing Logan, so it should only fall maybe 40% and hit another $11.5 million in its fourth weekend.
Fourth place is where a newcomer steps in, and between the two of them, I’m taking The Shack. The film’s marketing hasn’t been all that notable, and the faith-based audience is usually hungry about this time, especially with Lent starting this week. Then you have actors like Sam Worthington and Octavia Spencer starring, which aren’t exactly blockbuster names, though no reviews at this point isn’t a good sign, and tracking has it at $7 million, but still I’m thinking an opening weekend in the $9 million range is possible. It does play in 2,500 theaters, so its got that going for it. My prediction would mean $3,600 as the per-theater-average.
Fifth place will go to other newcomer Before I Fall. While this film, like The Shack, doesn’t feature a cast full of household names, Zoey Deutch does have a little clout to her name. The marketing has been pretty good and reviews are coming in mostly positive, 66% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes. Tracking has it coming in at $4.2 million, but I’m going just a bit higher at $5 million even, and depending on how John Wick: Chapter Two holds on, there’s a chance it does fall out of the top five, but with Logan being in direct competition, that film should fall out of the top five this weekend. 2,346 theaters will show the film, so the per-theater-average should be about $2,131.
Now going back to last weekend we’ll take a look at how well or poorly I did on predicting the top five at the box office. Well, Get Out did take the top spot, and it did better than the majority of predictors had it doing. It hit $33.3 million, a bit higher than my $27 million prediction, though. Second place went to The LEGO Batman Movie, which fell 41% from the weekend before, making $19.2 million. My prediction was almost spot-on: 40% off and $19.5 million, so I’m really glad about that one. Third place didn’t go so well. I had The Great Wall in that spot, falling 55% and getting $8.3 million, when it actually fell 50% earning $9.1 million, but it came in fourth place. Third place went to John Wick: Chapter Two, which I had clear down in fifth place. It’s actual earning was $9.3 million instead of my $7.2 million prediction. My fourth place prediction, Fifty Shades Darker, earned a fifth place finish and fell 61%, almost spot on with my 60% drop off prediction. It’s actual earning was $7.7 million with my number being $8.1 million, so I had it almost perfect there, just in the wrong place. So there, I got the top two then mixed and matched the other three in the top five. Unless the two newcomers really bomb this weekend, this week’s box office predictions should be an improvement, but then again I guess there’s only so much we can do to predict the results.
