Weekend Box Office Predictions: Guardians Gets the Summer Party Started
It’s hard to believe we’ve reached it, but we’re at the start of the summer movie season. This is the time of year when schools are letting out, the weather, for most everyone, is really warming up, and most everyone is in a great mood. It’s also a great time for moviegoers to get out to the cinemas with the big summer extravaganzas. This weekend sees the release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and it serves as the only wide release, so this week’s edition of box office predictions shouldn’t be too long. We’ll just be focusing on how much damage the Guardians can do in May.
Obviously being a part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe triggers a lot of buzz, but with Guardians Vol. 2, you’ve got a lot more at play. First off, everybody it seems, except me, loves, not likes, LOVES, Guardians of the Galaxy (2014), and with James Gunn returning to both write and direct this sequel, and the film following this one, that does not but help the film’s excitement. On top of that, you’ve got the star-power at the levels of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Bradley Cooper, Vin Diesel, Michael Rooker, Karen Gillan, Sylvester Stallone, and Kurt Russell that bring all sorts of audiences into the theaters. The marketing has been strong throughout the long wait for the sequel, and reviews are pretty strong with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes at this time. Tracking has been aiming for a $160 million opening, and while that might sound high to a lot of people, I think the excitement for a $170 million plus opening is possible, so I’ll go a bit higher with $167 million, which puts it just about $7 million shy of the opening weekend numbers posted by the live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast, and is about $12 million shy of the opening weekend Captain America: Civil War (2016) posted this time last year. Still, 4,347 theaters will be playing the film so the per-theater average is heading for $38,417.
Now for the two through five we’ll have plenty of leftovers from the past couple of weeks to chose from, but deciding which order they’ll be in will be kind of tough. Well, I think second place will go to the film no one was mentioning last week but is all the buzz this week: Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. I had no data on the film last week, so it’s numbers were, number one, astounding for the lack of buzz, marketing and low theater count, and two not predicted by me. I have it only falling 30% due to the very strong word of mouth surrounding it and a second weekend of $7.2 million. Third place looks like it will go to The Fate of the Furious, which I have falling 65% due to Guardians Vol. 2 going after the same audiences, plus it’ll be it’s fourth week of release, so I think $6.9 million will be about all it does.
Fourth place will go another winner from last week, How to be a Latin Lover, and even though the word-of-mouth, again, is strong, Guardians is also targeting the comedy audience, and I think they’ll see that instead of Latin Lover, which I see falling 45% and hitting $6.7 million its second weekend, and with Fate of the Furious just ahead of it there, there is the chance it hits third place. And for fifth place, I’ll go with The Boss Baby, which will pass $150 million before the weekend starts, but will add another $4.6 million over the weekend. The very poor word of mouth on The Circle is keeping me from including that in the top five.
Well, that was fast. Now let’s see, to my shame, how poorly I did at predicting last weekend. First place did indeed go to The Fate of the Furious, which hit $19.9 million. I had it hitting $17.2 million, so it did a bit better than I anticipated. My second place pick, The Boss Baby, entered in fourth place with $9.3 million. I had it hitting $8.8 million, so the number was very close but the place was way off the mark. My third place prediction, The Circle didn’t meet the $10 million total tracking had it hitting, which I foresaw, but it had to settle for fifth place and $9 million, which was higher than my $6.5 million low-ball prediction. My fourth place prediction, Beauty and the Beast, did not hit the top five, and my fifth place prediction, How to Be a Latin Lover, did better than expected with a second place finish and $12.2 million opening weekend. Third place went to Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, which, once again, I did not have any data on, but I never would have guessed $10.3 million opening weekend. Well done, especially since it’s almost three hours in length and only played in 425 theaters. So yeah, 1/5 last week. Damn. This week should be way better, or so I can hope. Well, regardless, I know a lot of people are excited to see Guardians Vol. 2 and the start of the summer season, and I think that there will be a lot of high openings this summer, so if you think $167 million will be a high point, well maybe, but who knows what else the summer will bring?
