Weekend Box Office Predictions: Ghosts from the 2000’s Come Back to Haunt Us
We’ve reached another end of another work week, almost, so it’s time to lay down the box office predictions for the weekend, and this weekend it’s all about redemption, both for me and for a slate of new releases. So those new releases include xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Split, and The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. We also have two previously released films expanding into wide release this weekend, The Founder and 20th Century Women. So let’s get cracking.
So as the title suggests, we’ve got a pair of familiarities coming back into the limelight: M. Night Shyamalan and the xXx franchise. However I’m not very confident in which film will take that number one spot. It could easily be the winner from the last two weeks, Hidden Figures, which only fell 8% last weekend, but I think there’s enough buzz around these two new releases to topple it. So what will top it? Well, I’m gonna go with the pick not everybody’s anticipating, Split. M. Night Shyamalan, whose story could tell its own horror story, has started mounting a mini-comeback with The Visit (2015), which did pretty well and wasn’t bashed by critics. Now Split has a good cast including rising star Anya Taylor Joy and X-Men franchise favorite James McAvoy. Advertising has been pretty strong for the film, critics are liking it, 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, and tracking is predicting an excellent result for the $5 million film, $22.5 million over the weekend. I still think the stink of Shyamalan will take another film or two to wear off, so I’ll go a bit lower at $19 million, and depending on how those other two films do, it could lose that top spot. It will play in 3,015 theaters and should average $6,302 per theater.
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage looks like it will take that number two spot. With a cast including Vin Diesel, Donnie Yen, Samuel L. Jackson, Toni Collette, and Nina Dobrev, and a lack of action movies so far this year, this could be a good weekend for Vin and company. However, the xXx franchise is one of the weaker ones in the action field, and it’s the first one in the series since xXx: State of the Union (2005), and that didn’t do so well. Critic reviews are just coming in, and so far it’s 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a bit higher than most expected. Advertising has also been strong for the film; it seems for every Split ad I am forced to watch on YouTube, I’m forced to watch one for Return of Xander Cage. Tracking also has the film hitting $23 million, which sounds too high to me. I put it at $16 million. Again depending on how Split and Hidden Figures perform, it could top the charts this weekend. Playing in 3,600 theaters it should hit $4,444 per theater.
So far the biggest stories of the 2017 box office year are the performances of Hidden Figures and La La Land, which were number one and two at the three day last weekend, and either one could usurp those two new releases. Hidden Figures will fall to number three this weekend according to my estimates, which have it falling only 25% and reaching $15.6 million as it continues its run. It looks like it will top $80 million domestically by the end of the month. La La Land shouldn’t be too far behind and I only have it falling 15% and getting $12.3 million for the weekend. The word-of-mouth from these two films has been magnificent thus far, and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon. In fact, if La La continues its Oscar-frontrunner status, it should top $100 million domestic by the end of the month and possibly $125 million by the time we get to the ceremony in late February.
That number five slot looks like it will belong to Sing. I have it falling 35% from last weekend, earning $9.2 million. So how about those other three films in wide release this weekend? Well, starting with The Founder, with Michael Keaton, Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, B.J. Novak, Patrick Wilson, and Linda Cardellini starring in the film, and from dependable director John Lee Hancock, the film is looking at a disappointing result. The film, originally set for release in the first week of August, was pushed back to an Oscar-qualifying run in New York and Los Angeles in December and now wide release this weekend to try and get a better result from Oscar voters, but the result has been a film that everybody remembered seeing the trailer for last spring, then forgot by the end of the summer, and now with the Oscar race pretty much cooled down and few mysteries remaining, it’s a non-player there and now at the box office. Critics are liking it, 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, but with only 1,100 theaters playing it and tracking low at $6 million, I regrefully have to put it lower than that, $3.5 million and potentially not even placing in the top ten. Average should be $3,182 per theater.
Another new release likely to be swept under the rug is The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. With zero recognizable actors and a non-existent marketing campaign, tracking has it hitting $1.4 million for the weekend. Critics haven’t weighed in, either, so that’s not a good sign. I have it earning less than $1 million, $800 thousand to be exact. Playing in 1,000 theaters that would mean an average of $800 per theater. And as for the wide expansion of 20th Century Women, we don’t have a theater count yet, but I would imagine it’s around 1,250 or so. Then again, they claimed Silence was expanding into wide release last weekend, and it only played in 750 theaters or so, which I call semi-moderate release. If that is the case also for 20th Century Women, don’t expect a multi-million dollar opening. Perhaps $1.5 million or so? Again, this will be way outside the top five and potentially the top ten.
So now for shame we will take a look at my horrible predictions from last weekend. Well, my first place prediction, Patriot’s Day, was outside the top five. Ooh! It only hit $11.6 million over the three day weekend, less than half of my $28 million prediction. My number two prediction, Hidden Figures, topped the chart with $20.8 million, above my $14.8 million estimation. I did not have La La Land, the number two film last weekend, in my top five, so no numbers for that. My number three predicted film, Sleepless, really missed, ending up in 8th place with $8.3 million, well below my $13.5 million prediction. The actual third place winner was Sing, taking in $14.2 million. Fourth place went to another film I didn’t have in the top five, The Bye Bye Man, making an impressive debut at $13.5 million, above my $7.5 million prediction. My fourth place prediction, Star Wars: Rogue One came in fifth place with $13.4 million, doing better than my $11 million prediction. For that fifth place slot my predictions had Monster Trucks earning $10 million. It actually did better than that, fetching $10.9 million. As far as the other films I had predictions for last week, Live by Night did land outside the top five and the top ten, coming in eleventh at $5.1 million, again well below my $9.5 million prediction. And Silence, which I said would be happy with $3 million, only caught $1.9 million, way down in 16th place. So yeah, this was 0/5 for those top five, and the others all were a mess. I can only hope this week goes better, but man I feel like I’m totally losing a step.
