Weekend Box Office Predictions: A Game of Horizons and Peculiar Children
It’s Thursday, and time for another box office prediction. The road ahead only has an odor of mystery to it. So far this month at the box office, only one word sums it all up: unpredictable. We see huge disappointments from films like Morgan, The Light Between Oceans, and Blair Witch. At the same time, we’re seeing films like Sully and Snowden perform above their somewhat meager expectations. So for this weekend, I’m tempted to say that two films that are opening wide are looking forward to nice debuts, I can’t say it too confidently. At the same time we see the releases of Masterminds and Queen of Katwe, and I don’t see either film doing as well. Okay, let’s get started.
We begin with Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, the newest film from Tim Burton. While the director hasn’t quite been himself lately (especially at the box office with Dark Shadows (2012) and Big Eyes (2014)), there is a lot of hope for this one. For one, the advertisements for the film have shown a potential start of a franchise on a level of a Harry Potter, or another Burton film, Alice in Wonderland. While I don’t see an opening that high, an opening on the level of $35 million is about what is expected for the film, which almost matches tracking numbers, $33 million. It also doesn’t hurt to have a Burton-esque huge cast, including Eva Green, Asa Butterfield, Ella Purnell, Allison Janney, Terence Stamp, Rupert Everett, Judi Dench, and Samuel L. Jackson. Reviews on the film aren’t bad either, with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 61%. The film opens in 3,520 theaters and should average $10,769 per theater.
Originally I saw the next film we’ll discuss, Deepwater Horizon opening over $35 million and battling for the top spot, but the adult entertainment has been very hit and miss this month. While Sully was a huge hit, The Magnificent 7 under-performed last weekend. So I’m going to be conservative on this one and say it opens to $28 million. Still, the cast, including Mark Wahlberg, Kurt Russell, John Malkovich, Gina Rodriguez, and Kate Hudson, is an attractive one and director Peter Berg’s last film with Wahlberg, Lone Survivor (2013) was a huge hit. Tracking on the film has it hitting $26 million for the weekend, so my prediction is pretty close, and the film has an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, so if the audience feels the same way, it could become a decent hit going into October as well. The film opens in 3,000 theaters and should average $9,333 per theater.
For third place I see The Magnificent 7, which didn’t quite do the record-making business we thought it might last weekend. Still, with its $34.7 million haul is nothing to sneeze at, and a 55% drop is in store. That would mean a second weekend of $15.6 million. Fourth place looks like it will belong to Storks. I see it doing about $11.7 million, or down 45%. Like Magnificent 7, the film came under expectations last weekend, but for those kids who will find Miss Peregrine too dark or terrifying, Storks is a viable alternative. And for the fifth spot I have to put Sully. Another 35% drop this weekend, another great hold for a September drama, would mean $8.8 million. That should be enough for fifth place, but it might be very, very close.
So for the other two wide releases this week, we have Masterminds, which was set to premiere last summer, but due to distribution problems, was shelved until this weekend. That doesn’t necessarily mean death for the film at the box office, though shelving usually does, but I don’t see it doing much better than $8.5 million this weekend. Zach Galifianakis, Owen Wilson, Kristin Wiig, and Jason Sudeikis star. With 2,800 theaters showing the film, that should average $3,036 per theater. Tracking has the film opening at $8 million. Then we have an expansion into wide release, Queen of Katwe. The film didn’t do so hot in limited release last weekend, and it only expands to 1,242 theaters. I think $5.5 million is tops for the film this weekend, or an average of $4,428 per theater.
Last weekend was a mixed bag at the box office as far as performances, but for my predictions, here’s how I did. In first place, The Magnificent 7 with $34.7 million. I correctly predicted it, but overshot the total. My $45 million prediction was off by over ten million. So it wasn’t quite the record-breaker we thought it could be, but then again I didn’t even think: westerns usually don’t perform as well. Second place belonged to Storks, taking in $21.3 million, much lower than my $38 million prediction. I was just plain wrong about this one. Third place was also correctly predicted for Sully, which continues its amazing run, or flight in this case, totaling $13.5 million for its third weekend, about $600 thousand more than my prediction of $12.9 million. Bridget Jones and her Baby saw a fourth place total of $4.6 million, a little lower than my $5.5 million prediction. And fifth place was also correctly predicted for Snowden, and my $4 million prediction was perfect. Even more amazing was the sixth place finish of Blair Witch, which only missed the top five by, get this, $2,444 dollars. That’s pretty close. So there you go: I got 5/5 films predicted for the top five. Will I ever do this again? Maybe, but this weekend isn’t one that I’ll confidently say has a chance. A lot can happen this weekend, so keep your eyes on the charts as the estimates come out.
