Weekend Box Office Predictions: All Eyez on 47 Rough Cars on Father’s Day Weekend
We’ve got four new additions to the summer box office season this weekend entering wide release and one film that will start in limited release and will likely expand in the new few weeks and a whole slew of leftovers from the past few weeks. This is going to be a busy one, so let’s get going with what I think will be in the top five this weekend at the box office.
The top spot looks like it will go the most family-friendly of releases this weekend, Cars 3. With the voice cast including the talents of Owen Wilson, Armie Hammer, Larry the Cable Guy, Bonnie Hunt, Nathan Fillion, Tony Shalhoub, Kerry Washington, Chris Cooper, Cheech Marin, John Ratzenberger, and Margo Martindale, and that’s just a few, and the longevity of the franchise, this will likely be a $55 million plus opening weekend for Pixar. Critics are liking it okay with 69% of critics recommending it on Rotten Tomatoes, and the marketing has been very heavy on the film, so I’m sure just about every kid out there who would want to see the film is aware it’s out this weekend. Now this has been an interesting one for me. I’m not sure if I want to be right alongside expectations, which is tracked at $56 million, or if I want to go higher or lower. One reason to go higher is the lack of family-friendly films. Even with Captain Underpants being out there, not too many families have been to the theaters lately, so they might have just been waiting to see this one. Then again, the word-of-mouth from the first two films has been, well, diminished returns for the older kids and adult audiences, but they won’t exactly be the ones channeling the big box office numbers, that will be kids, so I’ll go a bit above the expectations and say $63 million, which is right in-between the premieres of the first two films: $60.1 million and $66.1 million, respectively. 3,900 theaters play the film this weekend so $16,154 is the per-theater average based on that number.
Second place will likely go to holdover Wonder Woman. The movie had a great second weekend, and with no other superhero properties coming out for a few more weeks, it’ll likely linger around doing good business til then. I’ll say it drops another 45% this weekend for $32.1 million. For third place I’ll go with Rough Night. The film stars Scarlett Johansson, Kate McKinnon, Jillian Bell, Zoe Kravitz, Demi Moore, and Ty Burrell and the marketing campaign has been very effective, making it sound like a darker version of Bridesmaids (2011). Tracking has it hitting $22 million, which sounds a bit high to me. Also critics are pretty mixed on it so far, 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. That might factor in, and it seems like an odd counter-programming choice to have it debut on Father’s Day weekend. I can’t think of too many dads out there asking their kids to take him to a bachelorette-party-gone-wrong film. I might be wrong about that, but I know my old man doesn’t know this film exists. I’m going a bit lower than tracking and picking $19 million. With 3,000 theaters playing it, $6,333 is the expected per-theater average. That should be enough for third place.
Fourth place should go to All Eyez on Me, the Tupac Shakur biopic. The film doesn’t have any huge bankable stars to its name, but the subject matter is enough to have this one on a lot of people’s radars. Remember back a couple of years ago with Straight outta Compton (2015), which was forecast to bring in, like $20 million or so opening weekend but ballooned to $60.2 million? I don’t quite think it’ll happen again with one, especially since the marketing has been noticeably light and the critical praise that Compton got isn’t here with All Eyez on Me. At the time of me writing this blog, only three reviews have been published on Rotten Tomatoes, and it would equate out to a 33%, so we’ll see how critics like it as more reviews come in. Tracking has it at $20 million, but I’m going way more conservative with $16 million. Only 2,450 theaters will be playing it, so we’re expecting $6,531 to be the per-theater average.
Fifth place will be a battle between holdover The Mummy and newcomer 47 Meters Down. Tracking is not available for 47 Meters, which doesn’t help at all in this situation because both films are not looking at a great result over Father’s Day weekend. I’ll go with The Mummy falling 60% and digging up $12.6 million its second weekend. For 47 Meters Down, there just doesn’t seem to be too much excitement around it. With Mandy Moore and Matthew Modine starring, advertising being pretty limited, and not a whole lot of attention, I’m going with $9 million opening weekend. Critics are at 62% recommending on Rotten Tomatoes, so that won’t bring way too many people in. It’s just when you have so many new offerings at one time in one weekend one or two usually end up being lost in the shuffle. I think that will fall on 47 Meters Down. 2,300 theaters will have it, so the per-theater average is $3,913 by my estimates.
And for the last new release in semi-moderate release this weekend is The Book of Henry. With a cast including Naomi Watts, Jacob Tremblay, Dean Norris, Sarah Silverman, Lee Pace, and Bobby Moynihan, that’s quite an eclectic taste. Also it’s from Jurassic World (2015) director Colin Trevvorow, whose next project takes him to a galaxy far, far away, so there might be some die-hards out there who want to see his style before committing to that project. Marketing on the film has actually been better and farther-reaching than 47 Meters Down, just to add insult to injury, but one thing that will keep some away is the very negative reviews: 26% on Rotten Tomatoes as of right now. Only 575 theaters are playing it so it should squeak out $2 million, meaning a $3,478 per-theater average is in store.
Okay, with the busy weekend preview done, let’s get into the numbers from last week and see how accurate I was. Wonder Woman was the victor last weekend in what was forecast to be a big battle for the number one spot, but it did it pretty easily with $58.5 million, considerably higher than my $46.4 million. The actual was only off 43%, where I put it at 55% down. Second place went to The Mummy with $31.6 million, considerably lower than my $43 million prediction. Not a great start for the Dark Universe from Universal. Luckily the foreign markets were pretty high, so the film will survive based on that. Third place went to Captain Underpants with $12.1 million. I had it at $14.3 million, so that’s the closes I’ve come yet. Fourth place was for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales with $10.7 million, higher than my $8.8 million guess. And fifth place was incorrect. I had It Comes at Night, which crashed and burned in sixth place with $5.9 million, much lower than my $8 million prediction. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 spent one more time in the top five with $6.3 million, and I did not have a prediction for that one, obviously. And the other new release last weekend was Megan Leavey, and again a big disappointment with my $5.5 million opening weekend prediction falling by the wayside. Actual number was $3.8 million. Ouch. All right, so it’s Father’s Day weekend, which is usually a pretty busy one at the box office, and I think this year will be no exception. There’s a lot of different content out there, so have a good Father’s Day and I’ll be back again next week. However, the week after I’m on vacation, so I might not have anything then. Just depends on the Wi-Fi quality where I’m at.
