Weekend Box Office Predictions: Don’t Breathe Continues a Breathtaking Run
Last weekend saw an amazing performance by Don’t Breathe at the domestic box office with a $26.4 million total. It not only showed that the horror fans are out and about, but that the last weekend of the summer season wasn’t just a throw-away this year. This weekend sees two new releases, Morgan and The Light Between Oceans, and neither film will hold much of a candle to Don’t Breathe. Here’s how I think the weekend will go down. And just to let you know, the totals I predict today are for the 3-day weekend, only Fri-Sun, not including Labor day itself.
While I had a good idea the film would top the weekend box office, I had no idea it would catch on the way it did. Don’t Breathe almost doubled my expectations, which were themselves almost 50% over the tracking numbers. But when it comes to the Labor Day weekend, we usually don’t see anything too spectacular at the box office. Many moviegoers are traveling, relaxing, and not worrying about what’s going on at the cinemas. Plus horror movies are usually pretty front-loaded. While part of me thinks if it did so well last weekend, why shouldn’t the excellent word of mouth continue this weekend? Well, I’m expecting about a 55% drop, or a second weekend total of $11.8 million.
Of the two wide releases this weekend, I see Morgan doing the best. The tracking on the film has it opening around $6.5 million, which sounds about right to me. The film has a few bankable and/or notable stars, including Kate Mara, Toby Jones, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Michelle Yeoh, Paul Giamatti, and the breakout from February’s The Witch (2016) Anya Taylor-Joy. While the marketing has worked fairly well and the reviews are better than I expected, they are still not exactly strong enough to make those who are on the fence about seeing it buy tickets. I’m going to go a bit above the tracking numbers and say $8 million. It opens in 2,000 theaters, and should average about $4,000 per theater.
Suicide Squad has continued to perform very well and is expected to drop to third place with about a 45% drop for it’s fifth weekend. That would put it around $6.7 million. This would bring it close to $300 million domestically, and for a film with mostly never before seen DC characters that can’t count as anything but a win.
Next up is The Light Between Oceans, the newest film from The Place Beyond the Pines (2013) director Derek Cianfrance. With big stars like Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander in the leads and Rachel Weisz leading the supporting cast, some are expecting the film to be a challenger to Don’t Breathe. I beg to differ. While the two stars are very familiar to me, I don’t think the general movie-going audience would necessarily call them bankable stars. Also the film has some pretty split reviews, with some getting on-board 100% and really enjoying it, and others just being bored to tears. Tracking has the film opening around $7 million, which I just don’t see happening. I’m going to say $5.5 million for the opening weekend. Playing in 1,500 theaters would average $3,667 per theater.
The fifth spot should belong to Kubo and the Two Strings, which did very well last weekend. The word-of-mouth has shown that the tremendous reviews have helped bring in audiences, and I expect around a 40% drop and a third weekend total of $4.7 million. Also worth nothing is Hell or High Water, which adds a few more theaters and is now technically in wide release. It didn’t do quite as well as I predicted last week, but should have a good hold this weekend not too far outside the top five.
Now for the accuracy report from last week. I had Don’t Breathe at number one, but was only predicting a $13.5 million finish. It almost doubled that at $26.4 million. Suicide Squad was correctly predicted for the second spot, and fell 41%, off from my 45% prediction. It made $12.2 instead of $11.4. Not too bad. Where I fell apart was the rest of the top five. War Dogs was nowhere to be found in the top five, dropping instead to 7th with a bigger than expected drop of 52%, much more than my estimated 45%. It had to settle for a $7 million finish it’s second time around, about $1 million less than expected. Kubo took the third spot, falling 37%, which was only off 3% from my figures, or about $300 thousand. Fourth place was correctly predicted for Sausage Party, which dropped 51%, only 1% off my guess, or $200 thousand. I do have some bragging for the opening of Mechanic: Resurrection, which was only off $100 thousand from my $7.5 million prediction. It had $7.4 million. My bragging stops with the moderate releases. I had Hands of Stone at $3.5 million, but it only earned $1.7 million, less than half of what I expected. Meanwhile Southside with You did $2.8 million, more than my $2 million prediction. Last was Hell or High Water, which I had nabbing $4.5 million in it’s moderate release, but it only managed $3.5 million. So some big hits and big misses last weekend, but hopefully this weekend will have some slightly better results. Of course a happy Labor Day to everyone. Whether you’re out and about in cinemas or relaxing on a lake somewhere, have fun, be safe, and enjoy your time off.
