Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Doctor is In
The time has come for the season opener, that is the Holiday movie season. We have three new wide releases, all posed for different demographics, for the most part, and all looking to have a decent opening for their respective crowds, and those three films are Doctor Strange, Trolls, and Hacksaw Ridge. Let’s get started.
In first place, I think by a mile, will be Doctor Strange. With the eclectic cast including Benedict Cumberbatch, Rachel McAdams, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Mads Mikkelsen, Tilda Swinton, Michael Stuhlberg, Benedict Wong, and Benjamin Bratt, a competent director, Scott Derrickson, and its connection to the ever-growing and all powerful Marvel Cinematic Universe, a lot of people are stoked for the film. It did very well last week in its international start, and that has only fueled a bigger domestic result. The tracking for the film has it opening around $88 million, and I’ll put it just a tad below that with an $83 million opening. Strong critical reviews (presently its at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a three-month break from comic book movies should help those who were disappointed in Suicide Squad come out to see Strange. It opens in 3,882 theaters and is looking at $21,381 on average per theater.
Second place will belong to Trolls, and while initially I thought the film would have a strong opening then drop off fast, I think it will have some staying power. Like Strange we’ve got a great cast assembled, including Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Russell Brand, James Corden, Gwen Stefani, and Jeffrey Tambor, and the animated and kids fare has been hit and miss lately, with the two biggest hits, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Storks pretty much done at the box office now. So I predict a bit of a larger opening than most, $42 million. Tracking only has it at $30 million, so I won’t be surprised if I totally miss this one, but I think the young ones that aren’t digging Doctor Strange will have a good time with this one. Reviews aren’t terrible, either, with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes, and it does have the widest opening this weekend, 4,060 theaters, and should average $10,345.
I’ll put the last wide release, Hacksaw Ridge in third place. Directed by Mel Gibson and starring Andrew Garfield, Sam Worthington, Vince Vaughn, Teresa Palmer, and Hugo Weaving, this has been a huge question mark for me as far as how well it would do. Sure, the early word-of-mouth out of the Venice International Film Festival helped fuel interest for those who aren’t exactly fans of Gibson, but with the tough competition, I don’t see it doing as well as the other two, though it does have an 89% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes to help as well. Instead I’ll put it at a $17.5 million for the weekend, a bit above the tracked $10 million. Some say it could do even better, but I think the action and war fans will crossover a bit with Doctor Strange, preventing a huge opening, and it does only open in 2,880 theaters, so it should average $6,076 per theater.
So with three well-reviewed and releases that are primed for good openings for their respective audiences, the rest of the top five will be pretty slight. In fourth place I’ll put Boo! A Madea Halloween because why not? It has outperformed my expectations twice in a row, but still, Madea movies don’t do well after their initial weekend or two, and now that Halloween has passed, who’s rushing out to see this one? I say it drops 60% and earns $6.8 million its third weekend. And in fifth place will be Inferno, which really disappointed last week. The average Robert Langdon adventure drops 55% its second weekend, so that would mean a close finish of $6.6 million. Jack Reacher: Never go Back will also be in the mix, but I think the other two will be just too strong for it.
Now with that out of the way, let’s take a look at how last weekend turned out. Well, as preluded, I was dead wrong again about Boo! A Madea Halloween, which earned an impressive $17.2 million for its second weekend. I had it in second place at $12.8 million. In second place came Inferno, which opened to a lame $14.8 million, well below my $23.5 million first place prediction. For third place, I was correct with Jack Reacher: Never go Back, but I had it at $12.5 million instead of its $9.6 million total. Fourth place was also correctly predicted for The Accountant, which earned $8.4 million, just off $300 thousand from my $8.4 million thought, so that’s pretty good. And for fifth place came Ouija: Origin of Evil, earning $7.1 million, just a tad off my $7 million even prediction, so I have a little room for celebration after my stumbles. Hopefully I didn’t take too many chances this weekend and we’ll see an even better result for me.
