Weekend Box Office Predictions: Competitors will Get Out of the Theaters
Unbelievable. 2017 is just rollin’ along and we’ve reached the final weekend of February. Starting next week, we’re looking at potential blockbusters every weekend, some guaranteed blockbusters, but before we get there, we’ve gotta talk about the three new releases out this week: Get Out, Collide, and Rock Dog. Let’s get started.
So I think the obvious pick will be Get Out for number one. For one thing, the cast, while not exactly of instant ticket-sold quality, includes Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, and Catherine Keener, and Jordan Peele, who’s not the first person I saw directing a horror movie like this, brings some eyes onto the project, too. The big thing helping this is the early word of mouth. Not just 100% on Rotten Tomatoes so far, not just the horror aspect, but the actual dialogues happening with those who have seen the film say that this is more than meets the eye. The obvious comparison is Split, which did spectacular business last month and pushed on for a domestic total that will probably end up close to $135 million. While I don’t think Get Out will match Split, the marketing is strong, word-of-mouth is making it a must-see, and the disappointment of A Curse for Wellness, all signs are pointing toward an opening weekend of about $27 million. Tracking is pretty close, $24 million. With 2,781 theaters playing it, that would mean a per-theater average of $9,709.
Second place and beyond will all belong to holdovers. LEGO Batman should take second place with a 40% drop and a third weekend total of $19.5 million. Third place will go to The Great Wall, which I have falling 55% and hitting $8.3 million its second weekend. Fourth place will go to Fifty Shades Darker with a 60% drop off and a third weekend of $8.1 million. So since these two are so close they might just flip-flop come Sunday, but fifth place will probably go to John Wick: Chapter Two, which didn’t do what I thought it would last weekend, should hang on just enough for it to earn $7.2 million, good enough to close the top five.
Now we get to the two stinkers. Rock Dog first, because while I am convinced that LEGO Batman is the bigger draw for the family audience and kids, and the property isn’t exactly huge domestically speaking, I think there’s enough of a lull out there for some family audiences that some curiosity will get to it. Not enough to crack the top five, but enough to still make some dough. You do have a few recognizable voices in there, too, like Luke Wilson, Eddie Izzard, J.K. Simmons, Lewis Black, Mae Whitman, Matt Dillon, and Sam Elliott, but still the marketing has been nearly non-existent. I think an opening weekend of $4 million is the case. Reviews aren’t killing it, 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, so we’ve got that to consider, too. It only plays in 2,077 theaters, so $1,926 is the per-theater average. Tracking has it getting $2.9 million, so a weaker opening could easily happen.
And finally we get to Collide, which is going to avoid a collision with films like Get Out and John Wick: Chapter Two. Instead it will just get stuck in the mud. Sure, you’ve got Nicholas Hoult, Felicity Jones, Anthony Hopkins, and Ben Kingsley in the cast, and the marketing is a bit better than Rock Dog, but that’s not saying much, but no reviews and nearly no buzz overall makes this one a blip on the box office radar that will not stick around for long. I’m going with an opening weekend of $3 million. It plays in 2,045 theaters, the lowest of the three new releases, and all of the holdovers, including Fist Fight and A Cure for Wellness, have more theaters. That would mean a per-theater average of $1,467 per theater.
And now we get to last weekend’s scorecard for box office predictions. The LEGO Batman Movie did indeed take the top spot, but it didn’t hold quite as well as I thought. Still, my $37.1 million prediction wasn’t far off from the $32.6 million actual gross. Second place didn’t go well for me. That went to Fifty Shades Darker, which shocked us all with only a 56% drop, much better than my 5th place 75% drop prediction. The actual number, $20.2 million, last week’s prediction, $11.6 million. Wow. My second place prediction, John Wick: Chapter Two, had to settle for fourth place, dropping 46% and hitting $16.2 million, quite lower than my $19.7 million guess. Third place, another wrong one: Fist Fight did not get it, instead The Great Wall took it with $18.4 million. I had Great Wall in fourth with $12.5 million. I thought audiences would turn on for it, but oh well. Fist Fight earned $12.2 million, lower than my $18 million prediction. So really, 1/5 last weekend. Horrible. Well, we’ll have to have a really bad weekend for these predictions to fail this badly. Well, maybe not. Maybe I’ll just plain fail. But we’ve got Oscars this weekend, too, so maybe those predictions will turn out.
