Weekend Box Office Predictions: Can Power Rangers Tame the Beast?
After a record-breaking opening weekend, Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast is ready to go for its second weekend, and it will be coming up against Power Rangers, CHIPS, and Life. While none of these three films look to match Beauty and the Beast, Kong: Skull Island, or Logan‘s opening weekend numbers, there should still be some good numbers coming up for at least two of these new releases.
So while Power Rangers has a lot going for it, I’m picking Beauty and the Beast to win again this weekend. I mean, coming off of a $174.7 million opening weekend, which is the highest ever for March, and with a lot of good word-of-mouth from family and female audiences, though I liked it, too, the drop-off won’t be catastrophic. I’m going with a 55% drop and a second weekend of $78.6 million.
Second place looks like it will go to newcomer Power Rangers. While the five teenagers with attitude that lead the film aren’t household names, Bryan Cranston, Bill Hader, and Elizabeth Banks will bring in some folks. Also the marketing has been pretty good. There’s lots of TV ads and the trailers, while I personally have had a mixed reaction to them, have been fairly well received by fans of the original series. Critics are mixed on it, with 49% of Rotten Tomatoes’ critics recommending it at this time. While tracking is pointing at a $38 million opening weekend, I’ll follow the trend of most movies this March by going above expectations with $45 million. Unless Beast collapses and falls 75% or more, it will have to play second-fiddle. 3,693 theaters will play the film, so it should average $12,185 per theater.
Third place looks like it will be a true battle between newcomer Life and holdover Kong: Skull Island. For the former, the cast is an excellent one with Jake Gyllenhaal, Rebecca Ferguson, and Ryan Reynolds toplining. The marketing has been very strong, aiming to be a mix of some comedy and horror, like if Alien (1979) had a stronger sense of humor. Critics are liking it with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes, and tracking is aiming at $16 million. While I’m not as high on it as that, I think $14.5 million is in the bag. 2,500 theaters will play it so we’re looking at $5,800 being the per-theater average. Kong is looking at another 50% fall and a third weekend total of $13.9 million.
And in fifth place I’ll go with Logan one more time in the top five with $9.7 million its fourth weekend, a 45% drop off. That leaves other newcomer CHIPS out of the top five. While tracking has it at $10 million, I think that’s not even close. Sure, Dax Shepard, Michael Pena, Kristen Bell, Vincent D’Onofrio, and Adam Brody top out a solid cast, and the concept of the film looks like it could be the next 21 Jump Street (2012), there is just no excitement around the film. While the TV spots have been working overtime, the trailers have all sucked. And no critic reviews yet might be the nail in the coffin for a successful weekend. I’m going with an opening weekend of $6 million, much lower than those tracking numbers. I mean, does anybody even remember the original series, and who’s been calling for a film adaptation? We do have one other wide release, Slamma Jamma, opening this weekend, but I’ve heard no buzz and it’ll just barely qualify for wide release with 1,000 theaters playing it. It’s definitely outside the top five, and even has the possibility of opening outside the top ten. I’ll put it at $2.5 million, or averaging $2,500 per-theater.
So with all of that out of the way, let’s take a look at how we did last weekend with predictions. I went with Beauty and the Beast in the number one spot, and surprise, surprise it won with $174.7 million, a bit above my $160 million prediction. That looks a little better than the $150 million tracked for the film. Number two was another good one with Kong: Skull Island, which fell 54% and hit $27.8 million its second weekend. My $27.4 million, minus 55% prediction couldn’t have come any closer, so I count that as a big win. Third place went to Logan, which earned $17.8 million its third weekend, a bit lower than my $19 million prediction. Fourth place was another good one with Get Out, which fell 35% and hit $13.4 million, again a bit lower than my forecast, which was $14.5 million. And fifth place went to The Shack, down 40% and hitting $6 million its third weekend. I had it at $5.5 million, so that was pretty close, and in fifth place, making it 5/5. I also had a prediction for The Belko Experiment, which came in 7th place hitting $4.1 million. I had it outside the top five earning $4.5 million, so that’s pretty good. So overall, another strong performance predicting the weekend winners. Let’s see if that holds through this time.
