Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Calm Before the Summer Storm
We’ve arrived at the final weekend before the start of the summer movie season, believe it or not, and we’ve got two films entering wide release and one semi-moderate new release to discuss: The Circle and How to be a Latin Lover will be in wide release and Sleight will only get 550 theaters. But will any of them temper the box office boss The Fate of the Furious? Survey says…
NO! While Fate of the Furious isn’t reaching the dizzying heights of Furious 7 (2015), it’s still on track to become the second film this year to reach $1 billion worldwide, and will probably do so this weekend. Here in the states, though, I’m saying we’ll probably see another 55% dip and a third weekend total of $17.2 million, which should be enough for a third weekend at the top spot. This might be an unpopular pick for some of you, but despite The Circle entering 3,000 plus theaters this weekend, The Boss Baby will retain the number two spot. With nothing new for family audiences, it’s been wreaking havoc on the box office will only fall of 30% and hit $8.8 million its fifth weekend.
Now I’ll bet on The Circle. Despite the fact you’ve got a gusto cast like Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, John Boyega, Patton Oswalt, Karen Gillan, Ellar Coltrane, and one of Bill Paxton’s final performances, and it’s from a talented director, James Ponsoldt, and based on a bestselling novel, the buzz just isn’t there. Plus the marketing hasn’t really nailed what the premise is, what the stakes are, or what to expect. Plus no critical reviews at this stage is nothing but bad news. While tracking has it hitting $10 million this weekend, I’m going with a bomb result and $6.5 million. So sure, there’s an off chance it does okay and meets expectations there, but there’s just too many things working against it. 3,163 theaters will play the film, so the per-theater average will be $2,055.
In fourth place I’ll go with another Emma Watson film, Beauty and the Beast, which I see hitting $5.7 million in its seventh weekend. And to close out the top five I’ll go with How to Be a Latin Lover. While you’ve got a number of recognizable actors and actresses like Salma Hayek, Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, Raquel Welch, Rob Riggle, and Michael Cera in there, and the marketing has been fine, again I’m just not sensing a lot of excitement around the project. Again the studio doesn’t have confidence enough to screen it for critics. With all that in mind, I’m thinking an opening weekend of $4 million is in store. Tracking has it a bit higher at $6.5 million. With 1,118 theaters playing it, we’re looking at a per-theater average of $3,578.
And as for Sleight, I’m thinking it’s chances of lighting the box office on fire are slight. Haha, I’ll show myself out. Anyways, Jacob Latimore is the star, and his name does have a bit of a draw to it, but as mentioned earlier, its 550 theater count will prevent it from doing much damage. It might have the best marketing of the new releases, though, and has 58% on Rotten Tomatoes, mostly because it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in 2016. 2016, there’s a clue. Anyways, I’ll say $1.5 million and $2,727 is the per-theater average. Tracking has it laughably at $4 million, but I think the plan was a wider release originally. Oh well.
I wanted to save a little room to talk about last weekend, but there is quite a bit to talk about. We’ll start with how the top five went down, then we’ll get to last week’s releases. That’s right, none of them in the top five. This isn’t going to be good. Number one was correctly predicted for The Fate of the Furious, which landed at $38.4 million its second weekend, off 61%. I had it at $39.5 million, so that wasn’t bad. Number two also went well with The Boss Baby, which only fell 20% in its four weekend. That’s incredible. It made $12.7 million. I had it lower at $9.6 million. Number three is where it all goes to hell. Beauty and the Beast remained in the top three, and that made it six weeks in a row where it was in the top three of the box office. It made $9.6 million, much higher than my fourth place prediction of $6.8 million. Sheesh. We’ll get to my third place prediction in a bit. Fourth place went to Going in Style with $4.9 million, which I did not have in my predictions. Fifth place also went to a holdover, Smurfs: The Lost Village with $4.8 million. Those damn Smurfs kept me from getting 3/5 because they just pushed my fifth place prediction, Born in China, into sixth place. Now that did the best of the new bunch last week with $4.7 million, which was lower than my $5.5 million prediction. Now going back, my third place prediction, Unforgettable, landed in 7th place, also earning $4.7 million. I had it getting $8 million, so clearly this is a huge disappointment for everyone involved. For more disappointments, let’s get into the other new releases last week. I also had a prediction for The Promise, which hit in 9th place with $4 million. I had it at $3 million, so I was low on it. I was high on Phoenix Forgotten, which landed in 11th place with $1.8 million. I had it at $2.5 million. Two more predictions I had were Free Fire and The Lost City of Z. The latter did better than expected with $2.1 million in 10th place. And it was a sure misfire for the former, coming in in 17th place with $900 thousand, lower than my $1.7 million. And my $1 million prediction for Lost City of Z was doubled. Wow, a lot of misfires last week. Hopefully this week goes better, and sure it’ll go slow this weekend, but next weekend will be very promising with the stateside debut of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
