Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Arrival of Competition
Last week saw a great result for all three new releases entering theaters, and now this week we have three new wide releases and one limited release that will expand later, so while most, including myself, predict that Doctor Strange will be on top again this weekend, there’s a lot of competition out there and we should see a strong result for the holdovers and the new releases, so let’s get going.
As I just mentioned, Doctor Strange should be the top grossing film again this weekend, and with lots of positive fan reaction, the word-of-mouth has been preparing for a second weekend drop of less than 60%. Overall this year, though, drops that large have been the case for all superhero films except Deadpool (2016) which fell 57% and Captain America: Civil War (2016) which was down 59% in its second weekend. Doctor Strange is for me about to fall 55%, the best of the comic book films this year, and get a second weekend of $38.2 million, and there’s even a chance it falls less than 55% and gets closer to $40 million or more.
The fight for the second slot is going to be tough: either it’ll be Trolls in a great holdover or Arrival does well enough to take the spot. While I’m excited to see the film and the critical praise should help out the box office, I have to say Trolls will take the second spot. I am anticipating a 45% drop since it did so well last weekend and the lack of competition will help keep the family audiences going. That puts it at a $25.6 million, which should be enough for that second spot.
For third I’ll now put Arrival, which I think will still do very well. Look at all the good signs: a solid cast including Amy Adams, Forest Whitaker, Jeremy Renner, and Michael Stuhlbarg, nearly universally positive reviews with a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar buzz, a prime release date, and for those who love Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977) and the like who haven’t had much for entertainment lately, and they’ll dart to see this one. I have it earning $24 million this weekend, just a bit above the $22 million that is tracking for the film. It opens in 2,200 theaters and should average $10,909 per theater.
For fourth place we’ll put Almost Christmas, which reminds me of a recent holiday release starring an African-American that over-performed, and was also a comedy. With the cast like Kimberly Elise, Omar Epps, Danny Glover, John Michael Higgins, Mo’Nique, and plenty more, I think it’s looking for a $19.5 million opening weekend, again a just above the tracking numbers of $16.5 million. Reviews have just started coming in, and it’s so-so thus far. 2,372 theaters play the film this weekend, and with $19.5 million it would average $8,221 per theater.
For fifth place I have Hacksaw Ridge having a pretty good second weekend. It did well last weekend and has the strongest word-of-mouth of last week’s releases, so I have it dropping 40% and earning $9.1 million. The possibility of a less-than 40% drop is very possible, and it could well earn over $10 million in its second weekend. The other new release this weekend that goes wide is Shut In, which I have seen no advertisements for, has not screened for critics, and will likely only earn $4.5 million or so this weekend. Tracking has it at $5.5 million, so it’s a safe bet for it to be outside the top five and be lost in the shuffle. It does open, though, in 2,050 theaters, and with my prediction would earn $2,195 per theater.
We’ll also mention Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, which so far as I know, is only opening in 2 theaters this weekend, very limited before becoming a wide release next week. It should earn less than $50 thousand per theater this weekend, or less than $100 thousand for the weekend. Reviews are at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, and for the film that a month ago looked like the second or third favorite Best Picture bet, the buzz died when the reviews at the NYFF came out and were extremely mixed. Nobody flat out loved it, and a few even hated it, and this mixed reaction might stand for the general audiences, but I don’t see a phenomenal opening. Next weekend it might do better, but for now it’ll be a non-player for the top five but a great per-theater average.
So now we’ll take a quick look at last week’s numbers and how well I did. Doctor Strange was the top earner last week and did earn $85 million, a bit above my $83 million prediction, which is a great number for a less-than-famous superhero from Marvel. For second place, we saw Trolls do extremely well, earning $46.5 million, which even out-performed by $42 million prediction. Most had it under $40 million, so I count myself as in good standing with this one. Third place was another correct prediction: Hacksaw Ridge, which hit $15.1 million. For this one, though, I did over-estimate it a bit. I had $17.5 million. Fourth place was Boo! A Madea Halloween, which earned $7.7 million, again above my expectations of $6.8 million. Thank goodness I don’t have to trip over this one again this weekend…I hope. And fifth place was also correct, Inferno, which tumbled 58% to a $6.1 million second weekend, off a bit from my $6.6 million prediction. So hey, I got five out of five last weekend. I’m kind of nervous this week. I mean, I’m not for sure about Trolls and Arrival, and those two could easily flip-flop, but for now I’m feeling bullish on Trolls. Let’s see how this one goes down.
