Oscars at a Glance: Post NYFF Update
The New York Film Festival wrapped up a bit ago, and unfortunately one of my most eagerly awaited films of the year, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, crashed and burned with the critics that saw it, plus there have been a few developments since the last time I talked on the subject so I thought I’d give some more recent thoughts. Let’s get started with the top category:
Best Picture:
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- Fences
- Silence
- Jackie
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Moonlight
- Loving
- Arrival
- 20th Century Women
I think still far ahead is La La Land, one that hasn’t disappointed with almost every festival and critic screening, and 20th Century Women had a great result from NYFF, so I’m willing to push The Birth of a Nation out for now, not saying it won’t come back, but a pretty bad box office result and the continuing controversies around Nate Parker aren’t helping. Some other potentials also include Lion, Sully, and Live by Night alongside The Birth of a Nation.
Best Director:
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
- Martin Scorsese, Silence
- Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Not too many changes, just pushing Billy Lynn down the list. I’m not taking too many risks here, and Jenkins is looking a bit more solid now with a great opening weekend. For alternates, I’ll name Denzel Washington for Fences, Jeff Nichols for Loving, Pablo Larrain for Jackie, and Denis Villeneuve for Arrival.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
- Denzel Washington, Fences
- Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Joel Edgerton, Loving
- Michael Keaton, The Founder
So the big change in this category is putting Denzel out front. Sure, it could change back to Casey Affleck, who I believe will be a strong contender, but just by the looks of Fences, it feels like the time is right for Denzel’s third win: it was 12 years between Glory (1989) and Training Day (2001), and now it’ll be 15 years between Training Day and Fences. I won’t throw out Tom Hanks for Sully, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, Matthew McConaughey for Gold, and Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Ruth Negga, Loving
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Another lead change. I’m going with the more dramatic role, at least from first glances, and recently we’ve seen a few films win Best Picture without an acting award: Spotlight (2015), Birdman (2014), Argo (2012), The Hurt Locker (2009), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), and The Departed (2006) come to mind as recent examples, so if La La Land is going to win some of the big prizes, they might want to spread the wealth a little and give some others a chance. Other possibilities include Amy Adams for Arrival, Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins, Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane, and Isabelle Huppert for Elle.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
- Liam Neeson, Silence
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Moonlight has been taking names and kicking ass so far in limited release, and the time is right for an early favorite like Mahershala Ali to come forward in this, at least at early glances, weaker category. Plus with Billy Lynn weakening, Martin would have to be pretty phenomenal to keep up the spot, and there’s a shot he’s not there next week. Alternates include Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins, Kyle Chandler for Manchester by the Sea, and formerly in lead, now in supporting, Dev Patel for Lion.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Williams remains the only acting race where the early pick is still in first for me. Now a huge question for the rest of the category, which again early out looks weak in competition, is where Viola Davis is going to land. Some say she’s supporting, others say she’s lead, and at first glance lead makes more sense, but if she is supporting, there’s a chance she sweeps the category. Also look out for Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women, Felicity Jones for A Monster Calls, and Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- Fences
- Silence
- Arrival
- Lion
- Nocturnal Animals
Well, I previously said Manchester by the Sea was adapted, but turns out I was mis-informed, it is original screenplay, so that leaves this category with a whole bunch of tumbleweeds with a couple of exceptions. I’ll put Fences ahead early, but I’m not willing to say it wins right away. Other possibilities include Hidden Figures, Live by Night, A Monster Calls, and Elle.
Best Original Screenplay:
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- Jackie
- 20th Century Women
The polar opposite of adapted screenplay, original screenplay feels over-crowded, and there are a ton of films that look like sure-bets that I have to leave out. Early out I think the top three each have a huge chance of being a winner, but this early there’s no guarantee even these three are in. Here are others to consider: Loving, Hell or High Water, Zootopia, and The Birth of a Nation.
Best Animated Feature:
- Zootopia
- Finding Dory
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- Miss Hokusai
It’s been a very good year for animated fare, not only at the box office, but also quality wise for me. Zootopia remains one of the best films of the year for me personally and Finding Dory was a good watch. I haven’t seen the others yet, hell Moana hasn’t opened yet, but still, there’s gonna be some competition this year. Don’t count out The Red Turtle, The Secret Life of Pets, Sausage Party, and Sing.
All right, I think that’s enough for now. Some changes here and there on the roster this early out don’t mean too much yet, but still it’s fun to say a few names this early out and potentially say I’ve called it from this far. We’ll see.
