Oscars at a Glance: My October Predictions
It’s time for an update on my Oscar predictions. Last week we took a look at the list of films that I think have potential to do big damage on Oscar night, but it wasn’t very specific. Exactly which films do I have being nominated at the moment and which actors and actresses for those races? Well, I’ll list them. Remember we can have up to 10 nominees for Best Picture, but the rest of the big categories are all five nominees each, so I’ll list who I have in to be nominated and a few alternates. We’ll start at the top:
Best Picture:
- La La Land
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Manchester by the Sea
- Fences
- Silence
- Jackie
- Moonlight
- Loving
- Arrival
- Birth of a Nation
There are quite a few films coming up later this year that look phenomenal, especially La La Land, Billy Lynn, Manchester by the Sea, Fences, Jackie, and Moonlight for me personally. Sure, I’ll see the others, including Birth of a Nation later this week, but for the most part it looks like we’ll have a strong list of contenders this year. Alternates I would be wary of include Lion, 20th Century Women, Sully, and Live by Night.
Best Director:
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
- Martin Scorsese, Silence
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
The list of directors is a good one as well this year, but this early these five look like strong bets. Some might be wondering who Barry Jenkins is and why I’ve got him in. Well, we almost all missed Lenny Abrahamson getting in last year for Room (2015), so to cover my bases I’ll put him in now, but I think he’s got strong competition for winning the Oscar. Some alternates include Denzel Washington for Fences, Jeff Nichols for Loving, Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, and Pablo Larrain for Jackie.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
- Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
- Denzel Washington, Fences
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Joel Edgerton, Loving
- Michael Keaton, The Founder
A lot of people early on have put Denzel out front because his role will be a bit more shouty than Affleck’s more subdued performance, but then again you’re hearing this from me third-hand, so who knows, maybe he does have enough of those shouting and emotional scenes that seem necessary to win these days. Some other possibilities include Tom Hanks for Sully, Dev Patel for Lion, Nate Parker for Birth of a Nation, and Robert De Niro for The Comedian.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Ruth Negga, Loving
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Perhaps the most packed category this year is Best Actress, and we usually have one that is hard to get whittled down to five contenders, like Best Supporting Actor last year, so it won’t just be these five, also include Amy Adams for Arrival, Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins, Isabelle Huppert for Elle, and Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Liam Neeson, Silence
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
I’ve heard a lot of buzz over the performances of Mahershala Ali and Lucas Hedges, so the Steve Martin top pick is just a placeholder for now and could be toppled over later. There’s always a lot to mull over with the supporting guys, so don’t count out Michael Shannon for Noctural Animals and Loving, Kyle Chandler for Manchester by the Sea, Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins, and Timothy Spall for Denial.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
- Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Naomi Harris, Moonlight
- Aja Naomi King, Birth of a Nation
There has been a lot of buzz on these five, so early out I feel okay putting these five names down, but nothing is guaranteed this early out. There is a question on Viola Davis being put into supporting for Fences, and if she is, there’s a chance she’ll usurp all five of the actresses I have listed. I would also look out for Felicity Jones in A Monster Calls, Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women, and Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures.
Since we don’t have any official rulings yet on a few of the films as far as which of the two screenplay categories they’ll compete in, I’ll just say the ones we know for sure: La La Land is an early pick for Original Screenplay, and Manchester by the Sea will likely lead Best Adapted Screenplay. I’m always fascinated by the list as far as who are first time nominees and who are going for their next milestone in number of nominations, so if this list is right, we’re looking at 8/20 acting nominees being first-timers: Edgerton, Negga, Martin, Hedges, Ali, Stewart, Harris, and King. Jenkins is the only director up who hasn’t been nominated before. As far as big milestones with those who have been nominated before, we’re looking at nomination number two for Affleck, Gosling, Keaton, Stone, Neeson, and also for Chazelle, nomination number three for Davis, Portman and Lonergan, number four for Williams and Kidman, number five for Benning, six for Lee, the seventh nomination for Washington and Bridges, and number 13 for Scorsese. So there’s just a bit of a low-down on that as well. As the weeks go by and we begin to get closer to the actual ceremony, we’ll get more category nomination predictions and a better look at who will be in and who will be out for the top categories.
