Oscars at a Glance: December Update
Believe it or not, we’re now less than a month away from the announcements of the 2017 Academy Award nominations, and I’ve really slacked with this blog as far as predictions go, so I thought today I’d give an update on all the major categories as far as what I think will be nominated. I’ll list the nominees I have in there and a few alternates. The order given for each category is most likely to be nominated or front-runner to less likely or on the edge.
Best Picture
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Silence
Jackie
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Arrival
Hell or High Water
This race is more competitive with what the nominees will be versus what will win. This early out, La La Land has just been so well received and has held the steam it had months ago when it became the front-runner, and with only one bump in the road, no nomination for Outstanding Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, I suspect it will hold up through January and February. The one film on this list, though, that I might bump off is Silence. It was not screened in time for the Critic’s Choice Awards, Golden Globes, or Screen Actors Guild Awards, and it’s pretty rare for a film to have no nominations at any of those three and then end up with tons of nominations at the Oscars. Perhaps the most recent example is Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015), but that ended up in technical categories only. The other ones look solid for now. But let’s not forget Loving, Sully, Hidden Figures, and 20th Century Women.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Even more so than Best Picture, the Best Director race is even more packed. We are pretty confident in the first three listed: Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan, but in place of the last two, we need to look out for Denzel Washington for Fences, Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, Pablo Larrain for Jackie, and David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Denzel Washington, Fences
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
This category isn’t as stacked, and four out of these five are solid. Just Edgerton is at risk for now, with other possibilities including Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, Tom Hanks for Sully, Matthew McConaughey for Gold, and potentially Garfield could be swapped out for his performance in Silence. Remember there is a rule that the same actor cannot be nominated multiple times in the same category.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Amy Adams, Arrival
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
As stated previously, this category is, among the four acting, the most complicated and fluid race. Besides Portman and Stone, who are almost locks at this rate, any or all of the other three could go. We need to mention Annette Bening for 20th Century Women, Ruth Negga for Loving, Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, and Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
This category is actually pretty quiet this year. These five I might keep all the way up to nominations morning, but we’ll mention Liam Neeson for Silence, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Ben Foster for Hell or High Water, or Issei Ogata for Silence.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Again this category may be close to done as far as competition goes. These five have made it in just about everywhere, but we’ll mention Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women, Felicity Jones for A Monster Calls, Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures, and she also has a part in Moonlight, so that is also a possibility.
Best Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
Jackie
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
We did have two disqualifications in this category a few weeks ago: Moonlight, which looked like a strong candidate, and Loving, which was also in the mix. These two will now compete in the Adapted Screenplay category. For alternates to Original Screenplay, look to Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, The Lobster, and The Edge of Seventeen.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Fences
Moonlight
Silence
Arrival
Lion
Once again I’m dicey on putting Silence in, but the other four look solid. We’ll also mention Nocturnal Animals, Hidden Figures, Loving, and Hacksaw Ridge. As you can tell, this is the less competitive of the two categories.
Best Animated Feature
Zootopia
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Little Prince
This category has been difficult in the past, but I feel pretty safe with four of these five. Just The Little Prince is vulnerable, but then again we said that The LEGO Movie (2014) and The Good Dinosaur (2015) and The Peanuts Movie (2015) were all safe, but they missed out. I’ll also mention Sing, The Red Turtle, Sausage Party, and Your Name.
Best Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Silence
Live by Night
Moonlight
This is becoming one of the more competitive technical races. We have these five in the mix, but we’ll also mention Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals, and Hail, Caesar!.
Best Costume Design
La La Land
Jackie
Live by Night
Silence
Florence Foster Jenkins
Again we’re looking at a pretty crowded field for this category, and in addition to these five we’ll mention Love and Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hidden Figures, and The Handmaiden.
Best Production Design
La La Land
The Jungle Book
Silence
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
There are a couple of other possible nominees in this category, but for the moment these five look okay. Those alternates include Star Wars: Rogue One, Live by Night, Arrival, and The Handmaiden.
Best Film Editing
La La Land
Silence
Jackie
Hacksaw Ridge
Moonlight
Now back to a more competitive category. I think, with the exceptions of Silence and Jackie, the other three are safe. So we’ll look at alternates including Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, and Sully.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
Each year this branch shortens the list of possible nominees to seven, and they stupidly left off films like Jackie, Silence, Hacksaw Ridge and even Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Those four could have each been winners in this category, let alone nominees, but for the rest of the shortlist: The Dressmaker, Suicide Squad, A Man Called Ove, and Hail, Caesar!.
Best Original Score
La La Land
Star Wars: Rogue One
Jackie
Lion
Moonlight
Again we had a couple of disqualifications in this category: Arrival, Silence, and Manchester by the Sea. Of those three, the first two looked like likely nominees, but even without them, the field is actually pretty open. Look out for The Jungle Book, The BFG, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures.
Best Original Song
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
“Audition (The Fools who Dream)” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
“Try Everything” from Zootopia
This category is always tough for me. They always go with such odd choices. Then again, just by word of mouth, these might be the final five. I’ll also mention “Drive if Like you Stole It” from Sing Street, “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party, “Runnin'” from Hidden Figures, and “Letter to the Free” from 13th.
Best Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge
Star Wars: Rogue One
La La Land
The Jungle Book
Arrival
The sound categories usually have a ton of overlapping, but it’s only sometimes that we have the same film win both categories. In this case, we’ll include alternates Silence, Sully, Hell or High Water, and Deepwater Horizon.
Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Star Wars: Rogue One
The Jungle Book
Arrival
Pretty much the same story here, with alternates including Silence, Sully, Deepwater Horizon, and Hell or High Water. I feel like there’s an echo in this blog post.
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Arrival
Star Wars: Rogue One
Doctor Strange
Captain America: Civil War
Once again we have a shortlist here, but there wasn’t really any huge exclusions. We’ll also mention Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The BFG, Passengers, and Deepwater Horizon.
We didn’t get too much into the competition with who wins which category, which will come later, but for now I thought I’d just mainly do a list of what films I think will be nominated where and a quick overview. Coming up shortly are nomination announcements for BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and WGA Awards, so we’ll have separate predictions blogs for those coming soon, and of course we’ll revisit this topic again.
People love the plentiful cinematic arts. But to make an informed decision on which movie to see is a luxury.