Golden Globe Film Predictions: What Will Score Big on Monday?
I really, really, really intended to talk more about the awards season up to this point, but from now until mid-February, it’s busy time. We have SAG and Golden Globe nominations out next week, the Critic’s Choice Awards on Monday night, and then in January we get the Guild nominations, BAFTA’s nominations, and of course Oscar nominations. Unfortunately I’ve had no preview for why I’m picking what I’m picking for the upcoming Golden Globe nominations, but I’ll go ahead and pass out my votes for who’s getting nominated. We’ll take a look at the big categories here and I’ll have a brief statement on why I’m going with who I’m going with and some alternates. And remember, we’re talking film nominations, not TV.
Best Screenplay:
Fences
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
It looks like the drama race will come down between Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, with the latter being my pick for the winner, and Manchester is the early frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay, and I think those will line up. I do think we have some possibilities for alternates, like Lion, Silence, 20th Century Women, and The Lobster.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
This is one where you have four strong picks then you half to throw one in for competition. I think Kristen Stewart has the familiarity factor, and she’s had some projects in the past that have put her out of the Twilight (2008-2012) series stench. However, I’m not gonna bet my life on her getting that fifth slot. There’s a strong chance for someone like Greta Gerwig or Janelle Monae getting in instead, Gerwig for 20th Century Women, and Monae for Hidden Figures. I’m also going to say Felicity Jones has an outside shot for A Monster Calls, and Elle Fanning for 20th Century Women.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Neeson, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
This category is shaping up to be one that might be easy to pick five. Sure, Ali has a strong amount of momentum behind him, Bridges looks like he’ll grab his fifth nomination at the globes, and the other three have buzz behind them. There’s a few outside possibilities, including Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Steve Martin for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Ben Foster for Hell or High Water, or even Timothy Spall for Denial.
Best Actress: Comedy/Musical:
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
This is always an interesting category, and for sure Stone, Streep, and Bening are easy bets. Field and Steinfeld are expendable, but personally I’d love to see both of them recognized. Some other possibilities include Kate Beckinsale for Love and Friendship, Renee Zellweger for Bridget Jones’s Baby, Lily Collins for Rules Don’t Apply, and Kristen Stewart for Cafe Society.
Best Actor: Comedy/Musical:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
So we have one of the biggest box office hits of the year represented here and one of the biggest bombs of the Holiday movie season as well. Sounds right for the Globes. They have some oddball picks, like last year with Mark Ruffalo for Infinitely Polar Bear (2015) and Al Pacino for Danny Collins (2015). I’ll say that Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic, Alden Ehrenreich for Rules Don’t Apply, Robert De Niro for The Comedian, and Russell Crowe for The Nice Guys have outside shots.
Best Actress: Drama:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
The lead actress category has been a stacked one so far this year as far as the competition is concerned, so all except Natalie Portman have a shot of missing out in this category. We’ll see other possibilities including Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals, knocking herself out perhaps, or Rachel Weisz for Denial.
Best Actor: Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
This category will likely be these five. Sure, there’s always room for surprises at the Globes, but I’d be willing to say we have some outside possibilities in this category, too: Andrew Garfield for Silence, again potentially knocking himself out, Matthew McConaughey for Gold, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, and Will Smith for Collateral Beauty.
Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denzel Washington, Fences
Surprisingly this category is also becoming stacked. Early out, it looked like we had five picks and maybe one or two possible exceptions, but now we have the following choices: Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, Jeff Nichols for Loving, Pablo Larrain for Jackie, and Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. In particular Lonergan, whose film I have winning Best Motion Picture: Drama, so I might regret leaving him out later.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
The Lobster
At least these five all have heavily comedic elements or are just plain musicals, unlike last year’s winner, The Martian (2015) which had a huge argument to be in the drama race. Anyways, I’m gonna also say look out for Love and Friendship, Deadpool, Sing Street, and Hail, Caesar!
Best Motion Picture: Drama
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
I say we have a good lineup here. In total, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight will be the two battling it out here, and there is a possibility of Fences maybe coming up the middle. I’ll say we have the following films to look out for: Lion, Loving, Jackie, and Arrival. As you can see, with a few exceptions, the Globes will pick mostly short named movies this year.
At the Globes, we also have the Best Song and Best Original Score categories, and Best Animated Feature, but that will likely be dominated by films like Zootopia, Finding Dory, Moana, and Kubo and the Two Strings, with The Secret Life of Pets, Sing, and even Sausage Party with the fifth slot. Sure, we have some traditional foreign animation films, but they don’t always make it at the Globes. So overall, expect a big day for Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land, and Fences with the other contenders filling in slots where they can.
