Weekend Box Office Predictions: Can Sausage Party or Pete’s Dragon Grill Suicide Squad?
After the record-breaking opening last week of Suicide Squad, the box office is expected to be a little less active this weekend. While we have three new releases opening wide this weekend, only two of them, Sausage Party and Pete’s Dragon look to open north of $20 million each, but neither will have enough in them to beat Will Smith and friends. We also have Florence Foster Jenkins with Meryl Streep, but it won’t open as wide as the other two new releases.
My lowball prediction last week of $113 million for Suicide Squad was blown away as the film took in $133.6 million, becoming the best opening weekend in August ever, topping Guardians of the Galaxy (2014). So how well will it hold over for the second weekend? I don’t think it will tank as hard as others do, with some calling for anywhere from a 70-75% drop. While the film didn’t entertain me in the least, I understand how some will call it a fun, wild-style film. So we next look to how well a similarly reviewed film that just happens to be in the same wheelhouse, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016). While that film saw a big 69% drop, I think the magic number for Suicide Squad will be 66%, which would be a second weekend total of $45.4 million. Sure we could see a better hold than that, but superhero films rarely drop less than 50% with summer releases and even then the better holds are for the films that have almost universal respect from at least the fans, and that just isn’t the case for Suicide Squad. While I wouldn’t be surprised if it tops $50 million, I think a little under that is more likely.
So how well will the two more high-profile films do? We’ll look at Pete’s Dragon first. While I personally didn’t raise too much interest in the film until the second trailer in June, since then I’ve been very excited to see what Disney does with this remake. While tracking on the film has it opening around $32 million or so, I’ll go a bit lower and say $29 million. We have to remember that the original film from 1977 isn’t exactly the most remembered or celebrated of the classic Disney films and that the new film doesn’t have quite the star power that The Jungle Book from this spring had. Sure, we have Bryce Dallas Howard, Wes Bentley, Karl Urban, and in a barely advertised role Robert Redford, but none of them are exactly big draws. Sure, Howard was the female lead of Jurassic World (2015) and that opened to $200 million plus, but that relied much more on the franchise name, and Pete’s Dragon (1977) is no Jurassic Park (1993). $29 million ought to be enough for 2nd place, and opening in 3,400 theaters would mean an average of $8,529 per-theater.
Then we get to one of the more interesting films of the late summer, the raunchy animated comedy Sausage Party. Tracking has it opening around $25 million or more, and I’ll say that that is actually going to be pretty accurate. I’ll say $24 million for 3rd place, but I can see the film doing better than that, even. Of course we have the comedic talents of Seth Rogen, Kristen Wiig, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader, and the like leading the voice cast, and all of them have had their fair share of great and weaker openings in the past, but I see Sausage Party being a good one for all of them. The trailers have gone over well with audiences, they’ve even convinced some parents to take their kids to it, and I feel a sense of excitement with the release. If audiences aren’t as thrilled with Pete’s Dragon then Sausage Party could even come close to $30 million, but the word-of-mouth will have to be pretty fantastic. Still the $24 million in 2,800 theaters would mean about $8,571 per-theater.
So there we have the top three spots, more or less, so now for the fourth and fifth spot. Jason Bourne did see a big drop last week, and it does enter it’s third weekend this time around. That being said, the average drop for the Bourne franchise’s third weekend is 38%. While I don’t see that happening, a fall of 49% is more likely. That would bring it to $11.4 million, which should be enough for fourth.
Fifth place could be a toss-up. Bad Moms had a terrific hold last weekend, and it could become the biggest unexpected hit of the summer season if it falls around the same amount this weekend. Another 40% drop would be $8.4 million, which might be enough to top Florence Foster Jenkins. While that film has been tracking at less than $10 million, the reviews have been excellent thus far. Meryl Streep has had several bigger hits in the past when she has a late summer opening. From Mamma Mia! (2008) to Julie & Julia (2009) both opening north of $20 million to Hope Springs (2012) doing almost $15 million, but Ricki and the Flash (2015) from last summer didn’t do so hot with $6.6 million, and Florence Foster Jenkins isn’t opening in even that many theaters. Still, she does have a gathering of devoted fans and I see Florence Foster getting about $7.9 million, so by my rate there it will be in 6th place, but that’s only if Bad Moms has a similar hold as last week. If it does fall more than 50% then it will drop out of the top five. $7.9 million would be about $5,267 per-theater.
So how did I do last weekend? I already mentioned off the top I was off on Suicide Squad. My $113 million prediction was $20 million short. Second place was owned by Jason Bourne, and my 62% drop prediction was dead on. Third place was also correct with Bad Moms, but my 45% drop was off by 5%, or about $1 million. Fourth place actually went to The Secret Life of Pets, which did better than expected with only a 39% drop and a total of $11.5 million for its fifth weekend, which was off my $9 million prediction. Star Trek Beyond had to settle for fifth place with a 59% drop and a $10 million third weekend, off by $1.5 million and 4%. So all in all, I did fairly well. We’ll see just how much better or worse I do this weekend.
