2017 SAG Nominations: A Big Day for Manchester, Moonlight, and La La Land
Tomorrow we have the announcement of the 2017 Screen Actor’s Guild nominations, and we are expecting a big morning for the three following films: Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and La La Land. We’ll have a few nominations across the board for some other films, and there are only five film categories, so this prediction list will be quite short. We’ll start at the top with Outstanding Cast nominees.
Outstanding Cast
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
This category is actually the toughest to predict this year. We usually have a film with no individual nominations get in. Last year that was Straight outta Compton (2015), then we have one that has tons of notable actors, like Nocturnal Animals, and then we have Oscar frontrunners, so in this case that’s where the others come in. For alternates, there’s plenty of alternates: Fences, 20th Century Women, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Hell or High Water, and even Rules Don’t Apply.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Denzel Washington, Fences
This one’s a bit easier. These five are the same five I have getting in at the Oscars, and with two exceptions, Tom Hanks for Sully and Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, these five are pretty safe. I will throw in Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic and Colin Farrell for The Lobster in as wildcards.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
This list is looking more and more solid as we inch more toward the Oscars, with one big showstopper: Isabelle Huppert for Elle. While I don’t think she’ll do any damage tomorrow, I do see Adams being the first on the bench in favor of Huppert at the Oscars and also at BAFTA in a few weeks. However, the SAG’s do love Meryl Streep, and Florence Foster Jenkins screened early enough for them to remember, so she’s more likely tomorrow. Also I’ll say there’s a chance for Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures and Rebecca Hall for Christine. We have to remember, Sarah Silverman and Helen Mirren shocked last year in this category, so a small film like Christine could surprise as well.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
When you do the math, there are more supporting males in films than any other category, so when there’s weird nominees in any category, they’re likeliest here. So while I’m happy going with these five, I”ll say we have these four to look out for: Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins, Ben Foster for Hell or High Water, Timothy Spall for Denial, and Kevin Costner for Hidden Figures.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Again I’m pretty confident with these five, but look out for the two supporting ladies from Hidden Figures: Octavia Spencer and Janelle Monae. There’s a chance both of them or either one could replace one of the five. I’ll also highlight the possibility of Molly Shannon for Other People, who reminds me of Sarah Silverman’s nomination last year for I Smile Back (2015), which was a comedic actress making a dramatic turn, and this feels like a possibility, and Helen Mirren for Eye in the Sky.
There is also an award for Outstanding Stunt Ensemble, and that award usually goes to the most praised action movie of the year. So we’re looking at Captain America: Civil War, Star Trek Beyond, Jason Bourne, if it screened in time Star Wars: Rogue One, and the like to be the five nominees here. No official predictions, but look for these kind of movies. The Screen Actor’s Guild may feel inconsequential for newbies, but we have to remember times like Eddie Redmayne beating Michael Keaton a few years ago, where he took the lead for the Oscar, and when Birdman (2014) won Outstanding Cast, bumping its chances at the Oscars, so a big surprise or a big drop here for expected nominees could mean life or death in the Oscar race.
