2017 Golden Globes Preview: Will La La Land Dominate?
This Sunday Jimmy Fallon hosts the 74th Golden Globe Awards, and while these awards are usually meant to just be fun and the winners don’t always have a huge impact on the Oscars, this year will be an exception. You see, voting for the Academy Award nominations begins this week, so some voters might be watching Sunday night and follow the award with the winners being nominated in their respective category, or plugging in nominees. This will also be the case for the upcoming BAFTA awards, whose nominations will be announced before ballots for the Academy Awards are due. This blog post might serve as a final predictions post as well, but there are a couple of categories I’m still making my mind up about. If I do change my mind I’ll just update this blog, so keep an eye on this one. I’ll list the nominees and who I think will win.
Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdman
The winner will be: Elle
This is the only foreign language film nominated in multiple categories. Lead actress Isabelle Huppert will be competing in the lead actress drama category, and until the film was left off of the short-list, it lead the race in the Oscars, so unless they do go with more likely Oscar winner Toni Erdman, I think this one should win.
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia
The winner will be: Zootopia
I really think this is one of the safest bets on Sunday night. Not only is Zootopia way ahead in the Oscar race as well, it looks like the only animated film this year that could really branch out and get more than a couple of nominations. Moana and Sing were more recent, so they will have a dog in the fight, though.
Best Original Song
“Gold” from Gold
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“How Far I’ll go” from Moana
“Faith” from Sing
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
The winner will be: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Normally I would say La La Land takes this, and it does lead most polls, but I’ve heard from multiple sources that this particular song is just one of many great ones in the film (sadly I still haven’t seen this one), and that some better songs could have been nominated instead. Plus the Globes do like to spread the wealth a bit and not crown one film with every single award it’s nominated for. I will say this, though: if Moana does lose this one, this category is kind of wide open, and anything I think but that Gold song could win.
Best Original Score
Arrival
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
The winner will be: La La Land
This one should be pretty easy. It just has so many supporters in its corner. I would say if this one does lose, though, either Hidden Figures or Lion could snatch this one.
Best Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
The winner will be: Manchester by the Sea
I think this could actually be a surprisingly difficult category. There’s a chance this is the only win that Manchester gets, but if we’re talking who else could win this, this could also be the only win for Nocturnal Animals, which fares better here than at any other awards show this season so far. I’d also say Hell or High Water has an outside shot of winning.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomi Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
The winner will be: Viola Davis for Fences
This should be a lock, not only for Sunday, but for every awards show coming up. Viola is just so strong and her overdue factor is enough to push her over the edge. If I’ve gotta name an alternate, though, I’d say Nicole Kidman actually has the next best chance.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Dev Patel, Lion
The winner will be: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
This is probably the second or third hardest category to decide and it’s a three-man race between Ali, Bridges, and Patel. I can see a scenario where any one of the three win. We have Bridges, the veteran who did win in for Crazy Heart (2009) a few years ago, and this is the first nomination for both Ali and Patel. The Weinstein Company almost always gets a win here, and it looks like this would be the best chance for Lion to win an award. Then again, Moonlight does have six nominations total, so if they really do love that one, they’ve gotta give it something. This might be one where I change my mind later.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
The winner will be: Emma Stone for La La Land
This has gotta be a slam dunk for Emma. Early on I thought Annette and Meryl would both pose threats to her, but with Meryl receiving the Cecil B. DeMille award the same evening and Annette already having won two Golden Globes in the past, I think they’ll give it to Emma, but if anybody’s gonna take her down, it’s one of these two.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Comedy/Musical
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
The winner will be: Ryan Gosling for La La Land
This is one where I can actually see La La Land being upset. We have a strong three man race here between Gosling, Reynolds, and Grant. Reynolds has had a stellar year with Deadpool, a very celebrated performance. Then Grant is in a film with four nominations, and he is a celebrated star this year as well, and in a Weinstein Company production, Florence Foster Jenkins. I’m gonna stick with Ryan…Gosling, that is.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
The winner will be: Natalie Portman, Jackie
This should be an easy one. While Portman, sure, has won two Globes before, so has her strongest competitor, Amy Adams, whose two wins were back to back just a few years ago with American Hustle (2013) and Big Eyes (2014). Plus Portman could win her second Oscar for this performance. The one gal who could split the difference, though, is Isabelle Huppert for Elle, and she’s won a fair share of critic’s awards for this performance.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
The winner will be: Denzel Washington for Fences
This is the second hardest category. I mean, it’s a mano y mano between Denzel and Casey. Sure, Casey has been winning just about everywhere so far and is the likely favorite to win the Oscar, but Denzel is very charismatic both in person and in his performance, whereas Casey’s personality and performance is a quieter one. One more thing that might help Affleck is the lack of support for Fences, but my thinking is that they are saying hey, we only had five slots for director, and we didn’t have room for him there, but because he did such a good job, here’s one for acting. I could be dead wrong, but you’ve gotta go against the grain sometimes.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
The winner will be: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
While I can see the argument for both Jenkins and Gibson to steal this one away, some might be overthinking it. Sure, La La Land will be a big winner Sunday night, but I just think the work Chazelle has done, plus his front-runner status is enough to help him. Gibson has already won before, and arguably Chazelle has a bit more clout to his name than Jenkins, a relative newcomer to awards shows.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street
The winner will be: La La Land
I think this should be another easy one. Really the only film that has the prestige to take it down is Florence Foster Jenkins, but I doubt it.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
And the winner will be: Manchster by the Sea
This is the hardest category this Sunday. Both Moonlight and Manchester are neck-and-neck, and while Moonlight does have more nominations, Manchester more fits the bill of the traditional winner in this category. Then again, Hacksaw Ridge is reminiscent of The Revenant (2015), which won this thing last year as the big manly movie, which can sometimes win these top awards. Think The Hangover (2009) winning the best comedy category several years ago. So this one I’ll just say the one that has more wins overall heading its way, Manchester.
Once again, these probably aren’t going to be final, so keep an eye on this blog over the next couple of days. If I have any updated predictions or any big changes, I will let you know. Sunday’s show will hopefully be a fun one to watch with Jimmy Fallon at the helm and hopefully a few surprises in store. We’ll see what happens.
