In what could potentially be the last Michael Bay-directed Transformers film, Transformers: The Last Knight hit theaters on Wednesday, and it’s the only wide-release film out this weekend, and since estimates are already in for what it’ll earn over the five day weekend, that makes my job much easier. Okay, let’s get going.
We’ve already got the five-day-weekend estimates for The Last Knight, and for Paramount and any fans of the film, those numbers are nothing short of disappointing. $63 million between Wednesday and Sunday. Wow. That means for the three day we’re expecting about $40 million. If you had told me that was the case a month ago, I would have thought you were crazy. Oh, well. Maybe audiences are getting smarter with the series, or maybe just the fact that it’s the fifth one in the series weighed it down. Well, anyways, we’ve got Mark Wahlberg, Josh Duhamel, Stanley Tucci, John Turturro, Isabela Moner, and Anthony Hopkins making appearances in the film with voice work from Peter Cullen, John Goodman, Ken Watanabe, and Omar Sy, this is quite a cast, and Michael Bay has his fans. On top of that, the marketing hasn’t been anything less than great for awareness and everything, and as most speculated, the critics are decimating it with only a 16% on Rotten Tomatoes. So while tracking was aiming at a $50 million three-day weekend and closer to $70 million over the long weekend, if you want to freakin call Wednesday and Thursday “weekend” days, this is, again, a disappointing result, especially considering the $260 million production cost and probably close to equivalent marketing cost, which means they probably spent close to $500 million in total. Well, here’s hoping the international audience is hungry. Still, $40 million will be enough for first place and 4,069 theaters are playing the film, so that makes the per-theater average $9,830.
The rest of the top five will be holdovers. Cars 3 will likely take second with a 40% drop. It’ll fall even more next weekend with the release of Despicable Me 3. That puts it at $32.2 million in its second weekend. Wonder Woman will drop to third with a 35% drop and a fourth weekend total of $26.8 million, and that should be enough for it to crack $300 million by Saturday, perhaps by Friday. Fourth place will likely go to a big winner from last week, All Eyez on Me, which I see falling 55% and hitting $11.8 million its second weekend. And for fifth place I’m thinking a release from last week will take it, 47 Meters Down. From what I’ve heard, the word-of-mouth has been pretty decent on it so I’m saying a 40% drop and a second weekend of $6.7 million, which by estimates puts it ahead of The Mummy, which I think will fall fast being in direct competition with Transformers.
All right, this is a quick one today, but I’ll run through last week’s top five and new releases and we’ll see how I did. For the first spot, Cars 3 won with $53.6 million, below my $63 million estimate. Wonder Woman continued to defy expectations with a 29% drop and a second place total of $41.2 million, much higher than my $32.1 million prediction. Third place was a disaster of a pick for me: Rough Night. I had it reaching third place with a $19 million opening weekend. It opened to less than half of that with $8 million in seventh place. Yikes! The actual third place winner was All Eyez on Me with an enormous $26.4 million take. I was pessimistic about it and had it in fourth place with $16 million. In fourth place at the actual box office was my 5th place pick, The Mummy which hit $14.5 million its second weekend, which was higher than my $12.6 million guess. In fifth place at the actual box office was 47 Meters Down, which I had opening at $9 million. It exceeded those expectations with $11.2 million. I also had a prediction last week for The Book of Henry, which I pegged at $2 million. It didn’t do way too bad at $1.4 million. So overall last week wasn’t a great one for my predictions, and hopefully this weekend will be a better one. I’m on vacation starting later today and I might not be able to post anything next week, so I am going to give some very quick predictions for the releases next weekend: Despicable Me 3 will lead the pack, and I’m saying $85 million due to family audiences not really going out to much lately, especially with Cars 3 not doing as well as predicted last weekend. We also have The House opening up next weekend, and while Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler are making it an A-grade effort to advertise the film, I’m not sensing much excitement around it so I’m going with an opening weekend around $15 million. And for Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver, which opens next Wednesday, I’m saying it earns $8.5 million between Friday and Sunday and should clear $15 million between Wednesday and Sunday if that matters. I’ll have fun on vacation and be thinking of everyone of you who read and if I’m able to you’ll be hearing from me soon.