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Weekend Box Office Predictions: Last Weekend of Summer Lands with a Thud

We’ve made it!  We’re down to the last weekend in August, and effectively the end of the summer movie season.  Like most summer movie seasons, this one had it’s ups and down both critically and financially speaking, but what usually happens every year is by the middle (or sometimes the beginning) of August, we hit a brick wall that’s usually around til we get closer to the last part of September (or worse yet sometimes not til November).  That will definitely be the case this year, and despite the fact that we have three new films entering release this weekend: Birth of the DragonLeap!, and All Saints, I don’t see any topping the charts, and there’s also the potential that none of them make a big crack in the top five.  All right, let’s see what crazy road the summer movie season ends on.

So the number one spot should easily go to last week’s winner, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which I see falling 50% and hitting $10.6 million.  Number two will be Annabelle: Creation taking another 45% off and making another $8.5 million.  If it falls much less it could potentially vie for that top spot.  Third and fourth spots from last week I see switching up: Dunkirk makes it back to third place with another $4.6 million and Logan Lucky pretty close to a deadlock with $4.5 million.  Watch those two duke it out.

So finally I see Leap! doing the best of the new releases.  It’s already hit the screens oversees (in some cases late last year), and features a few familiar voices in the cast, like Elle Fanning, Dane DeHaan, Carly Rae Jepsen, Mel Brooks, and Kate McKinnon.  However, the marketing material has been nearly non-existent, there’s about a 32% score on Rotten Tomatoes based on critics who have seen it, and on top of that if you’re not The Emoji MovieCars 3 or Despicable Me 3, and you’re a family-friendly animated film this summer, you’re not making it at the box office.  Tracking has it hitting $3.8 million, but I’ll go a bit higher and say $4.2 million.  It’s opening in the widest theaters this weekend, 2,575, and is heading for a per-theater average of $1,631.

So that leaves the other top out of the top five, which I don’t think is crazy talk.  Birth of the Dragon is what we’ll do next.  Billy Magnussen is the only recognizable name here, and even then I’m not sure if everyone who reads this isn’t preparing to google him or his career right now.  On top of that, again nearly no marketing on the film, and no reviews at this point makes it a hopeless case.  Plus, nothing against the Bruce Lee fans, but I feel like the modern millennial audiences have no clue who the hell Bruce Lee is, and we had Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story (1993) years ago, and that seems to be a go-to if you want to see a big-screen version of Bruce Lee as not played by Bruce Lee.  Tracking has it opening to $2.5 million, but I’ll go higher and say $3.5 million.  Only 1,617 theaters play the film, so we’re talking $2,165 as the per-theater average.

And finally, the last film of the summer movie season, is All Saints.  First, a word of caution, it’s only playing in 800 theaters, so don’t expect much from it, and it’s also a faith film, which can be one of two things: a splash in the pan that only makes a few bucks, or a surprise hit that tops the box office.  Well, I see the former being the case here.  No recognizable actors, no marketing, no reviews, and simply no cares from me, either.  Tracking is insane saying $4 million, and ain’t gonna happen.  I’ll be generous and say $2 million.  That means $2,500 is the per-theater average.

Okay, let’s get going with the closing step of the weekly blog, where we look at what happened in the top five at the box office last weekend and how I did predicting it.  The Hitman’s Bodyguard topped the charts last weekend with $21.3 million, a little higher than my $19.5 million prediction, but I’m happy with that.  Annabelle: Creation fell apart a little bit with $15.6 million, off 55% from its opening and also lower than my $17.5 million.  Logan Lucky came in third place with $7.6 million, way lower than the $12 million tracked and lower, yes, than my prediction of $9 million.  Fourth place was an easy one for Dunkirk, down 39% and hitting another $6.6 million, pretty close to my $7 million prediction.  And finally The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature fell, surprisingly, only 39% and made another $5 million its second weekend.  I had Girls Trip in there, but it fell way down to 8th place with $3.9 million, which was actually better than my $3.8 million prediction, so if you want to count that, that’s pretty impressive.  Anyways, I’ll do a follow-up blog sooner or later that takes a look at the highs and lows of the summer movies and what made big impressions and what made small impacts.  Catch ya later!

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PlagmanRules
I am a gigantic movie nerd who spends his free time memorizing Oscar winners and nominees and seeing as many good movies as I can. I have always wanted to write about films, review films, and speculate on films, and hope that this site helps me get a couple of people who can agree or disagree with me.