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Weekend Box Office Predictions: How High will Sully Fly?

Sully

As we head into the Fall movie season, we begin to see films that either have Oscar potential or real stinkers enter the cinemas.  This weekend sees a mix with the release of four films: Sully, When the Bough Breaks, The Wild Life, and The Disappointments Room.  With four wide releases this week, we’ll see just how well the holdovers, which have been doing so well the last couple of weeks, will hold up this week.

We begin with the widest release of the weekend, Sully, which I am also putting my money on to win the weekend.  Not only has the film’s marketing been very well done, not only does it have notable director Clint Eastwood behind it, the star power of Tom Hanks, but it also has a fascinating story.  On top of that, the film was shot almost entirely with IMAX cameras, so you know that those who haven’t been to IMAX in a while and who are looking for an experience will be ready for this one.  Tracking has the film opening at $22 million, which would be a spectacular opening for the film, but I’ll put it a bit lower at $19.5 million.  The film does have mostly positive reviews, but especially with all the American Sniper (2014) haters out there, there is sure to be some who just won’t go see another Clint Eastwood film for a while.  The film is set to open in 3,350 theaters, and my predicted opening would mean an average of $5,821.

Don’t Breathe Review – Jack Fitzpatrick

The second spot will be a hard one to call.  It’s either going to be Don’t Breathe or When the Bough Breaks.  While I’m very tempted to put the so-far over-performing Don’t Breathe here, but I’m going to go with When the Bough Breaks.  The African-American starring thrillers that usually open around this time of the year have done very well in the past, like The Perfect Guy (2015) opening to $25.8 million, and No Good Deed (2014) opening to $24.2 million.  Tracking on Bough has it opening around $18 million, which I think will be pretty accurate.  I’ll put it at $17.5 million, and the more I think about it, the more the chances increase that maybe it can come closer to Sully than expected.  It opens in 2,200 theaters, and should average $7,955 per theater.

Don’t Breathe only fell 41%, showing that yes, horror has had a spectacular summer.  I underestimated the film for two weeks running now, and while When the Bough Breaks does come from the same studio and is after the same general audience, I’ll say it drops another 40% for a third weekend total of $9.4 million, which should be enough for third place.

Suicide Squad

We’ll have another holdover score 4th place, but the question is who will it be?  Suicide Squad, Pete’s Dragon, or Kubo and the Two Strings?  Either way, all three should top the other two new releases this weekend. I’ll go with Suicide Squad with $5.4 million for 4th and Kubo in 5th with $4.5 million.

Now for those other two.  We’ll look at The Wild Life first, which is on track for a $3.5 million opening.  I have it at $4 million, though it could open even lower than that.  There has been almost no advertising for the film, and with other animated films doing so well this summer, kids might be more looking forward to other releases later this month.  Also opening is The Disappointments Room, and it should live up to its name.  There is no tracking available on the film, and I don’t think it can top $3 million.  Wild Life opens in 2,200 theaters and should average $1,818 per theater.  Disappointments Room will be in 1,500 theaters and would average $2000 per theater.

Morgan movie review

Last weekend’s predictions were nothing short of a disaster for me, but we have to do it.  Let’s see just how bad it was.  Don’t Breathe did top the pack last weekend, but only fell 40%, instead of my 55% prediction.  Next up was Morgan.  Where is it?  Seriously, where the hell is it?  Oh, it’s clear down in 18th place!  Wow, was I way off the mark.  I put it at $8 million for second place, but it only managed $2 million, one quarter of what I thought it would earn. The second spot belonged to Suicide Squad, which fell only 19%, much better than my third place 45% drop prediction.  My 4th place prediction for The Light Between Oceans was also off the mark.  I had it at $5.5 million, but it earned $4.7 million for an 8th place finish.  Yikes!  It didn’t get any better from there, with a 5th place prediction of Kubo and the Two Strings with $4.7, and it ended up with $6.3 million in third place.  Well, Light Between Oceans did earn $4.7 million, so give me some credit.  Pete’s Dragon reached a very rare feat of bouncing back into the top five after dropping out the weekend previous.  It also earned $6.3 million, and scored fourth place.  Fifth place ended up being Sausage Party with $5.1 million.  If I may, the last two weeks have been difficult, but hopefully we’ll see a turnaround this weekend and the more obvious picks will come out where they are predicted.  Hopefully.

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PlagmanRules
I am a gigantic movie nerd who spends his free time memorizing Oscar winners and nominees and seeing as many good movies as I can. I have always wanted to write about films, review films, and speculate on films, and hope that this site helps me get a couple of people who can agree or disagree with me.