So now I’ve reach one full year since I’ve started these weekend box office predictions. It seems that, simultaneously, many things have changed, yet nothing’s changed since this started a year ago. Hmm. Well, we’re also entering the final lap of the summer movie season with August, and to start that off, two new wide release films, The Dark Tower and Kidnap enter the fray this weekend as well as the nationwide expansion of Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit. So how will they fare with the holdovers from the last few weeks? Well, let’s see how well I do, but this will kind of be a tricky weekend.
The champion for the last two weeks, Dunkirk, was one I doubted last week, foolishly, and I’m gonna have to do it again. While I see Dunkirk falling 40% and earning $15.9 million, there’s enough buzz around The Dark Tower for it to earn the #1 spot. That film stars Idris Elba, Matthew McConaughey, Abbey Lee, and Jackie Earle Haley, and is of course a sequel to the book series originally published by Stephen King, and there’ a long, complicated history with many other directors, writers, and studio heads who wanted to get this to the big screen. Unfortunately, critics aren’t much in support of the film as it sits at 19% on Rotten Tomatoes. While tracking has put it at $28 million its opening weekend, I’m cutting 1/4 of that out and saying $21 million. It plays in 3,449 theaters this weekend, and is heading for a per-theater average of $6,089. Again, second place will be Dunkirk‘s at $15.9 million.
Third place looks like it will likely go to the film that’s expanding this weekend, Detroit. With a great cast like John Boyega, Will Poulter, Jason Mitchell, Jacob Latimore, Jack Reynor, Anthony Mackie, and John Krasinski, and an Academy-Award winning director like Kathryn Bigelow, there’s some potential Oscar nomination stuff surrounding this film, that draws out the crowds, and it just sounds like a hell of a good story to tell. It’s critical reception is among one of the better reviewed films of the summer at 93%, so that helps, and it’s in 3,007 theaters. It’s tracking at $13 million, but I’m gonna go on the line and say $15 million. That means a per-theater average of $4,988. Fourth place looks like it will go to holdover Girls Trip, which has really lit up the summer comedy movies, and I see a 35% drop and a third weekend of $12.7 million. And fifth place will go to The Emoji Movie, which will likely drop 60% and hit a second weekend of $9.8 million.
So that leaves Kidnap out of the top five, but I think that honestly will happen. It stars Halle Berry, who’s the only big-name actor or actress in the film, and honestly I haven’t seen one ad, one trailer, one promotional piece of material on the film, and just seeing the poster now on wikipedia reminds me of her film The Call (2014), which I surprisingly liked, just with a slightly less hard edge behind it. Tracking has it at $4 million, and I don’t see it rising way too far ahead of that, especially with 43% of the reviews on Rotten Tomatoes being in the negative. I’ll go a bit below that and say $3.5 million. In 2,200 theaters, so $1,591 is your per-theater average.
Now we’ll look at how I did last week. To kind of head this off, I mentioned toward the top that it was probably a foolish choice to leave Dunkirk not at the top spot, and it did so with $26.6 million, which was below my second place prediction of $30.3 million. So even though it did top the charts, that’s still a bit of letdown, though I think it will continue to make money for the studio. Second place went to my first place prediction of The Emoji Movie with $24.5 million, and that was way off my top spot prediction of $34 million. Third place went to hangover film Girls Trip, making an additional $19.6 million, which was a bit above my $17.1 million prediction. My third place pick, Atomic Blonde, disappointed in fourth place with $18.2 million, below my expectations again of $26 million. Too bad, I actually thought it was a good movie. And to close off, my final prediction for fifth place was correct with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which dropped 40% and hit $13.2 million, which was higher than my $11 million prediction. That one is still chugging along. So yeah, last weekend was a bad one. Hope I rebound for this one.