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Golden Globe Film Predictions: What Will Score Big on Monday?

I really, really, really intended to talk more about the awards season up to this point, but from now until mid-February, it’s busy time.  We have SAG and Golden Globe nominations out next week, the Critic’s Choice Awards on Monday night, and then in January we get the Guild nominations, BAFTA’s nominations, and of course Oscar nominations.  Unfortunately I’ve had no preview for why I’m picking what I’m picking for the upcoming Golden Globe nominations, but I’ll go ahead and pass out my votes for who’s getting nominated.  We’ll take a look at the big categories here and I’ll have a brief statement on why I’m going with who I’m going with and some alternates.  And remember, we’re talking film nominations, not TV.

Best Screenplay:

Fences

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

It looks like the drama race will come down between Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, with the latter being my pick for the winner, and Manchester is the early frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay, and I think those will line up.  I do think we have some possibilities for alternates, like LionSilence, 20th Century Women, and The Lobster.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomi Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

This is one where you have four strong picks then you half to throw one in for competition.  I think Kristen Stewart has the familiarity factor, and she’s had some projects in the past that have put her out of the Twilight (2008-2012) series stench.  However, I’m not gonna bet my life on her getting that fifth slot.  There’s a strong chance for someone like Greta Gerwig or Janelle Monae getting in instead, Gerwig for 20th Century Women, and Monae for Hidden Figures.  I’m also going to say Felicity Jones has an outside shot for A Monster Calls, and Elle Fanning for 20th Century Women.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Liam Neeson, Silence

Dev Patel, Lion

This category is shaping up to be one that might be easy to pick five.  Sure, Ali has a strong amount of momentum behind him, Bridges looks like he’ll grab his fifth nomination at the globes, and the other three have buzz behind them.  There’s a few outside possibilities, including Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Steve Martin for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Ben Foster for Hell or High Water, or even Timothy Spall for Denial.

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical:

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

This is always an interesting category, and for sure Stone, Streep, and Bening are easy bets.  Field and Steinfeld are expendable, but personally I’d love to see both of them recognized.  Some other possibilities include Kate Beckinsale for Love and Friendship, Renee Zellweger for Bridget Jones’s Baby, Lily Collins for Rules Don’t Apply, and Kristen Stewart for Cafe Society.

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

So we have one of the biggest box office hits of the year represented here and one of the biggest bombs of the Holiday movie season as well.  Sounds right for the Globes.  They have some oddball picks, like last year with Mark Ruffalo for Infinitely Polar Bear (2015) and Al Pacino for Danny Collins (2015).  I’ll say that Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic, Alden Ehrenreich for Rules Don’t Apply, Robert De Niro for The Comedian, and Russell Crowe for The Nice Guys have outside shots.

Best Actress: Drama:

Amy Adams, Arrival

Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

The lead actress category has been a stacked one so far this year as far as the competition is concerned, so all except Natalie Portman have a shot of missing out in this category.  We’ll see other possibilities including Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals, knocking herself out perhaps, or Rachel Weisz for Denial.

Best Actor: Drama

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

This category will likely be these five.  Sure, there’s always room for surprises at the Globes, but I’d be willing to say we have some outside possibilities in this category, too: Andrew Garfield for Silence, again potentially knocking himself out, Matthew McConaughey for Gold, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, and Will Smith for Collateral Beauty.

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denzel Washington, Fences

Surprisingly this category is also becoming stacked.  Early out, it looked like we had five picks and maybe one or two possible exceptions, but now we have the following choices: Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, Jeff Nichols for Loving, Pablo Larrain for Jackie, and Denis Villeneuve for Arrival.  In particular Lonergan, whose film I have winning Best Motion Picture: Drama, so I might regret leaving him out later.

Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical

20th Century Women

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

Rules Don’t Apply

The Lobster

At least these five all have heavily comedic elements or are just plain musicals, unlike last year’s winner, The Martian (2015) which had a huge argument to be in the drama race.  Anyways, I’m gonna also say look out for Love and FriendshipDeadpoolSing Street, and Hail, Caesar!

Best Motion Picture: Drama

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

I say we have a good lineup here.  In total, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight will be the two battling it out here, and there is a possibility of Fences maybe coming up the middle.  I’ll say we have the following films to look out for: LionLovingJackie, and Arrival.  As you can see, with a few exceptions, the Globes will pick mostly short named movies this year.

At the Globes, we also have the Best Song and Best Original Score categories, and Best Animated Feature, but that will likely be dominated by films like ZootopiaFinding DoryMoana, and Kubo and the Two Strings, with The Secret Life of PetsSing, and even Sausage Party with the fifth slot.  Sure, we have some traditional foreign animation films, but they don’t always make it at the Globes.  So overall, expect a big day for MoonlightManchester by the SeaLa La Land, and Fences with the other contenders filling in slots where they can.

 

 

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PlagmanRules
I am a gigantic movie nerd who spends his free time memorizing Oscar winners and nominees and seeing as many good movies as I can. I have always wanted to write about films, review films, and speculate on films, and hope that this site helps me get a couple of people who can agree or disagree with me.